UEFA Nations League· 3· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 | 0.76–2.69 | 0.50–2.95 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.790.46–5.12 |
| Shots on target | 5.42 | 3.56–7.28 | 3.06–7.77 | 3.93 | 2.22–5.64 | 1.75–6.10 | 9.354.82–13.88 |
| Total shots | 15.74 | 12.04–19.44 | 11.01–20.47 | 11.78 | 8.40–15.16 | 7.47–16.09 | 27.5218.48–36.57 |
| Shots in box | 9.04 | 6.52–11.55 | 5.66–12.42 | 6.02 | 3.72–8.33 | 2.93–9.12 | 15.068.58–21.54 |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 | 1.88–5.04 | 1.34–5.58 | 2.75 | 1.34–4.17 | 0.85–4.65 | 6.212.19–10.23 |
| Corners | 5.52 | 3.31–7.72 | 2.72–8.32 | 3.24 | 1.26–5.22 | 0.73–5.76 | 8.763.44–14.07 |
| Possession % | 54.12 | 47.80–60.43 | 46.20–62.03 | 45.78 | 39.46–52.10 | 37.86–53.70 | — |
| Passes | 458 | 392–523 | 375–541 | 389 | 324–453 | 306–471 | 846681–1011 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.18 | 74.97–83.40 | 73.66–84.70 | 78.33 | 73.82–82.83 | 72.49–84.16 | — |
| Fouls | 11.90 | 9.04–14.76 | 8.16–15.64 | 11.24 | 8.29–14.19 | 7.38–15.10 | 23.1415.54–30.75 |
| Offsides | 2.10 | 0.89–3.31 | 0.54–3.65 | 1.70 | 0.53–2.86 | 0.20–3.19 | 3.790.75–6.84 |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 | 1.01–3.12 | 0.74–3.39 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.961.22–6.69 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.48 | 1.06–3.89 | 0.68–4.28 | 3.45 | 1.90–5.00 | 1.46–5.44 | 5.932.14–9.72 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
24%
23%
Shots on target
63%
26%
Total shots
75%
20%
Shots in box
74%
18%
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
Corners
73%
17%
Fouls
51%
40%
Offsides
47%
21%
32%
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+