UEFA Nations League· 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 | 0.32–2.24 | 0.06–2.50 | 1.04 | 0.18–1.90 | 0.00–2.15 | 2.320.00–4.65 |
| Shots on target | 4.38 | 2.52–6.23 | 2.02–6.73 | 3.30 | 1.59–5.01 | 1.12–5.47 | 7.683.14–12.21 |
| Total shots | 13.43 | 9.72–17.13 | 8.69–18.16 | 9.61 | 6.23–12.99 | 5.30–13.92 | 23.0413.99–32.08 |
| Shots in box | 8.25 | 5.73–10.77 | 4.87–11.63 | 5.98 | 3.68–8.28 | 2.88–9.08 | 14.237.75–20.71 |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 | 1.78–4.95 | 1.25–5.48 | 2.80 | 1.39–4.22 | 0.90–4.70 | 6.172.15–10.19 |
| Corners | 4.80 | 2.60–7.01 | 2.00–7.61 | 3.37 | 1.39–5.35 | 0.85–5.89 | 8.182.86–13.49 |
| Possession % | 52.78 | 46.46–59.10 | 44.87–60.69 | 46.14 | 39.82–52.46 | 38.23–54.06 | — |
| Passes | 470 | 405–536 | 387–553 | 415 | 350–479 | 332–497 | 885720–1050 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.31 | 78.09–86.52 | 76.79–87.82 | 77.28 | 72.77–81.79 | 71.44–83.12 | — |
| Fouls | 12.11 | 9.25–14.96 | 8.36–15.85 | 12.98 | 10.03–15.92 | 9.11–16.84 | 25.0817.48–32.69 |
| Offsides | 1.80 | 0.59–3.01 | 0.25–3.35 | 1.52 | 0.36–2.68 | 0.02–3.01 | 3.320.27–6.37 |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.48–3.14 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.74–4.35 | 3.00 | 1.45–4.56 | 1.02–4.99 | 5.541.75–9.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
42%
28%
30%
Shots on target
58%
14%
28%
Total shots
76%
18%
Shots in box
68%
23%
Blocked shots
51%
16%
33%
Corners
63%
25%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
Yellow cards
38%
22%
41%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+