UEFA Nations League· 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 | 0.73–2.66 | 0.47–2.92 | 1.01 | 0.15–1.87 | 0.00–2.12 | 2.710.38–5.04 |
| Shots on target | 5.88 | 4.02–7.73 | 3.52–8.23 | 3.02 | 1.31–4.73 | 0.84–5.20 | 8.904.37–13.43 |
| Total shots | 16.72 | 13.02–20.42 | 11.98–21.45 | 8.68 | 5.30–12.05 | 4.37–12.99 | 25.3916.35–34.44 |
| Shots in box | 10.41 | 7.89–12.92 | 7.03–13.79 | 5.17 | 2.87–7.47 | 2.07–8.26 | 15.579.10–22.05 |
| Blocked shots | 4.23 | 2.64–5.81 | 2.11–6.34 | 2.41 | 0.99–3.82 | 0.51–4.31 | 6.632.61–10.65 |
| Corners | 6.20 | 3.99–8.41 | 3.40–9.00 | 3.22 | 1.25–5.20 | 0.71–5.74 | 9.424.11–14.74 |
| Possession % | 59.28 | 52.96–65.60 | 51.37–67.19 | 42.13 | 35.81–48.44 | 34.21–50.04 | — |
| Passes | 492 | 427–557 | 409–575 | 361 | 296–425 | 279–443 | 853688–1018 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.45 | 79.24–87.67 | 77.94–88.97 | 77.87 | 73.36–82.38 | 72.03–83.71 | — |
| Fouls | 11.35 | 8.49–14.20 | 7.60–15.09 | 12.82 | 9.87–15.76 | 8.95–16.68 | 24.1616.56–31.77 |
| Offsides | 1.78 | 0.57–2.99 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.81 | 0.65–2.97 | 0.32–3.31 | 3.600.55–6.64 |
| Yellow cards | 1.13 | 0.07–2.19 | 0.00–2.46 | 1.99 | 0.87–3.11 | 0.58–3.40 | 3.130.39–5.86 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.38 | 0.96–3.79 | 0.57–4.18 | 3.50 | 1.95–5.06 | 1.52–5.49 | 5.882.09–9.67 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
24%
23%
Shots on target
79%
Total shots
94%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
70%
18%
Corners
79%
Fouls
34%
58%
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
Yellow cards
21%
22%
57%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+