UEFA Nations League· 6· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 | 0.59–2.52 | 0.33–2.78 | 1.32 | 0.46–2.18 | 0.22–2.43 | 2.880.55–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 5.50 | 3.65–7.36 | 3.15–7.86 | 4.21 | 2.50–5.91 | 2.03–6.38 | 9.715.18–14.24 |
| Total shots | 15.20 | 11.49–18.90 | 10.46–19.93 | 11.12 | 7.74–14.49 | 6.81–15.42 | 26.3117.27–35.36 |
| Shots in box | 10.13 | 7.61–12.64 | 6.74–13.51 | 7.51 | 5.21–9.81 | 4.41–10.61 | 17.6411.16–24.12 |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 | 2.51–5.68 | 1.97–6.21 | 2.73 | 1.32–4.15 | 0.83–4.63 | 6.822.80–10.84 |
| Corners | 5.92 | 3.72–8.13 | 3.12–8.72 | 4.52 | 2.55–6.50 | 2.01–7.04 | 10.455.13–15.76 |
| Possession % | 49.44 | 43.13–55.76 | 41.53–57.36 | 50.07 | 43.75–56.39 | 42.16–57.99 | — |
| Passes | 450 | 384–515 | 367–533 | 501 | 437–566 | 419–583 | 951786–1116 |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.49 | 80.27–88.70 | 78.97–90.00 | 85.38 | 80.87–89.89 | 79.54–91.22 | — |
| Fouls | 9.59 | 6.74–12.45 | 5.85–13.34 | 11.11 | 8.16–14.05 | 7.25–14.97 | 20.7013.10–28.31 |
| Offsides | 1.99 | 0.78–3.20 | 0.44–3.55 | 1.43 | 0.27–2.60 | 0.00–2.93 | 3.420.38–6.47 |
| Yellow cards | 1.30 | 0.24–2.35 | 0.00–2.62 | 1.48 | 0.36–2.60 | 0.07–2.89 | 2.780.04–5.51 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.55 | 1.14–3.97 | 0.75–4.35 | 3.79 | 2.24–5.34 | 1.80–5.78 | 6.342.55–10.13 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
25%
32%
Shots on target
60%
28%
Total shots
76%
18%
Shots in box
69%
23%
Blocked shots
63%
14%
24%
Corners
61%
28%
Fouls
33%
59%
Offsides
51%
22%
28%
Yellow cards
33%
25%
42%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
24%
14%
61%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+