UEFA Nations League· 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.58 | 0.62–2.55 | 0.36–2.81 | 0.98 | 0.13–1.84 | 0.00–2.09 | 2.570.24–4.90 |
| Shots on target | 4.26 | 2.40–6.11 | 1.90–6.61 | 4.78 | 3.07–6.48 | 2.60–6.95 | 9.034.50–13.56 |
| Total shots | 12.92 | 9.22–16.63 | 8.19–17.66 | 13.99 | 10.61–17.37 | 9.68–18.30 | 26.9217.87–35.96 |
| Shots in box | 8.20 | 5.69–10.72 | 4.82–11.58 | 7.44 | 5.13–9.74 | 4.34–10.53 | 15.649.16–22.12 |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 | 1.80–4.97 | 1.26–5.50 | 2.56 | 1.14–3.97 | 0.66–4.46 | 5.941.92–9.96 |
| Corners | 4.87 | 2.67–7.08 | 2.07–7.67 | 4.33 | 2.35–6.31 | 1.82–6.85 | 9.213.89–14.52 |
| Possession % | 50.17 | 43.85–56.49 | 42.26–58.08 | 48.80 | 42.48–55.12 | 40.88–56.71 | — |
| Passes | 398 | 333–464 | 315–481 | 395 | 331–460 | 313–478 | 794629–959 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.48 | 73.26–81.69 | 71.96–83.00 | 77.33 | 72.83–81.84 | 71.49–83.17 | — |
| Fouls | 13.67 | 10.81–16.53 | 9.93–17.41 | 14.48 | 11.54–17.43 | 10.62–18.35 | 28.1520.55–35.76 |
| Offsides | 1.91 | 0.70–3.12 | 0.36–3.46 | 1.62 | 0.45–2.78 | 0.12–3.11 | 3.530.48–6.58 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.25–2.91 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.340.61–6.08 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.09 | 1.68–4.51 | 1.29–4.90 | 2.76 | 1.20–4.31 | 0.77–4.74 | 5.852.06–9.64 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
25%
24%
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
Total shots
38%
54%
Shots in box
53%
37%
Blocked shots
55%
16%
29%
Corners
50%
13%
36%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+