Superliga· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 | 0.34–2.27 | 0.08–2.53 | 1.20 | 0.34–2.06 | 0.09–2.31 | 2.500.18–4.83 |
| Shots on target | 4.35 | 2.49–6.20 | 1.99–6.70 | 4.56 | 2.85–6.27 | 2.39–6.74 | 8.914.38–13.44 |
| Total shots | 13.50 | 9.80–17.21 | 8.77–18.24 | 13.17 | 9.79–16.54 | 8.86–17.47 | 26.6717.63–35.71 |
| Shots in box | 8.67 | 6.15–11.18 | 5.29–12.05 | 8.54 | 6.24–10.84 | 5.44–11.64 | 17.2110.73–23.69 |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 | 2.08–5.25 | 1.55–5.79 | 3.43 | 2.02–4.85 | 1.53–5.33 | 7.103.08–11.12 |
| Corners | 5.01 | 2.81–7.22 | 2.21–7.81 | 4.71 | 2.73–6.69 | 2.19–7.23 | 9.724.40–15.04 |
| Possession % | 46.65 | 40.33–52.96 | 38.73–54.56 | 53.61 | 47.30–59.93 | 45.70–61.53 | — |
| Passes | 432 | 367–497 | 349–515 | 473 | 408–537 | 390–555 | 905740–1070 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.77 | 66.56–74.99 | 65.25–76.29 | 70.86 | 66.35–75.36 | 65.02–76.69 | — |
| Fouls | 12.45 | 9.59–15.30 | 8.70–16.19 | 10.64 | 7.69–13.58 | 6.78–14.50 | 23.0815.48–30.69 |
| Offsides | 1.85 | 0.64–3.05 | 0.29–3.40 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.48 | 0.00–2.82 | 3.170.12–6.22 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.72–2.83 | 0.45–3.11 | 1.94 | 0.82–3.06 | 0.53–3.35 | 3.720.98–6.45 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.16 | 1.74–4.57 | 1.36–4.96 | 2.67 | 1.11–4.22 | 0.68–4.65 | 5.832.04–9.62 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
27%
34%
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
Total shots
49%
44%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
Corners
47%
40%
Fouls
61%
32%
Offsides
50%
23%
28%
Yellow cards
36%
21%
42%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
50%
17%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+