Superliga· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 | 0.38–2.31 | 0.12–2.57 | 1.63 | 0.78–2.49 | 0.53–2.74 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 4.71 | 2.85–6.56 | 2.35–7.06 | 4.99 | 3.28–6.69 | 2.81–7.16 | 9.695.16–14.22 |
| Total shots | 12.61 | 8.91–16.32 | 7.88–17.35 | 13.57 | 10.19–16.95 | 9.26–17.88 | 26.1817.14–35.22 |
| Shots in box | 8.43 | 5.92–10.95 | 5.05–11.81 | 8.41 | 6.11–10.71 | 5.31–11.51 | 16.8410.37–23.32 |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 | 1.55–4.72 | 1.02–5.25 | 3.95 | 2.53–5.36 | 2.04–5.85 | 7.083.06–11.10 |
| Corners | 5.15 | 2.94–7.35 | 2.35–7.95 | 5.24 | 3.26–7.22 | 2.73–7.76 | 10.395.07–15.70 |
| Possession % | 45.69 | 39.37–52.01 | 37.77–53.60 | 53.37 | 47.05–59.69 | 45.45–61.28 | — |
| Passes | 426 | 360–491 | 343–509 | 487 | 422–551 | 405–569 | 913747–1078 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.28 | 70.06–78.49 | 68.76–79.79 | 77.71 | 73.21–82.22 | 71.87–83.55 | — |
| Fouls | 12.60 | 9.74–15.46 | 8.86–16.34 | 10.06 | 7.12–13.01 | 6.20–13.92 | 22.6615.05–30.27 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.03 | 0.26–3.37 | 1.58 | 0.42–2.74 | 0.08–3.07 | 3.400.35–6.45 |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 | 0.89–3.00 | 0.62–3.27 | 1.69 | 0.57–2.81 | 0.28–3.10 | 3.640.90–6.38 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.80 | 2.38–5.21 | 1.99–5.60 | 2.61 | 1.06–4.17 | 0.63–4.60 | 6.412.62–10.20 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
24%
44%
Shots on target
40%
47%
Total shots
39%
54%
Shots in box
45%
45%
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
Corners
43%
45%
Fouls
67%
26%
Offsides
44%
22%
34%
Yellow cards
44%
22%
34%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+