Superliga· Regular Season - 17· · Right to Dream Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.14 | 1.18–3.10 | 0.92–3.36 | 1.03 | 0.17–1.89 | 0.00–2.13 | 3.170.84–5.49 |
| Shots on target | 5.68 | 3.82–7.53 | 3.32–8.03 | 4.28 | 2.57–5.99 | 2.10–6.46 | 9.965.43–14.49 |
| Total shots | 15.40 | 11.70–19.11 | 10.67–20.14 | 12.04 | 8.66–15.42 | 7.73–16.35 | 27.4518.40–36.49 |
| Shots in box | 11.68 | 9.17–14.20 | 8.30–15.06 | 6.78 | 4.48–9.08 | 3.68–9.88 | 18.4611.99–24.94 |
| Blocked shots | 4.42 | 2.83–6.00 | 2.30–6.53 | 2.67 | 1.26–4.09 | 0.77–4.57 | 7.093.07–11.11 |
| Corners | 5.59 | 3.38–7.79 | 2.79–8.39 | 3.67 | 1.69–5.64 | 1.15–6.18 | 9.253.94–14.57 |
| Possession % | 62.80 | 56.48–69.12 | 54.89–70.72 | 37.93 | 31.61–44.25 | 30.02–45.85 | — |
| Passes | 630 | 565–695 | 547–713 | 384 | 319–448 | 302–466 | 1014849–1179 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.81 | 72.60–81.03 | 71.30–82.33 | 68.71 | 64.20–73.21 | 62.87–74.54 | — |
| Fouls | 11.45 | 8.59–14.31 | 7.71–15.19 | 12.16 | 9.22–15.11 | 8.30–16.02 | 23.6116.01–31.22 |
| Offsides | 1.72 | 0.51–2.93 | 0.16–3.27 | 1.57 | 0.41–2.73 | 0.07–3.06 | 3.290.24–6.33 |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 | 0.43–2.55 | 0.16–2.82 | 2.13 | 1.01–3.25 | 0.72–3.54 | 3.620.88–6.36 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.69 | 1.28–4.10 | 0.89–4.49 | 3.25 | 1.69–4.80 | 1.26–5.23 | 5.942.15–9.73 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
63%
20%
17%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
71%
23%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
68%
20%
Corners
68%
21%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+