Superliga· Regular Season - 21· · Energi Viborg Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.33–2.26 | 0.07–2.52 | 1.52 | 0.66–2.38 | 0.41–2.62 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 4.63 | 2.77–6.49 | 2.28–6.99 | 4.25 | 2.54–5.95 | 2.07–6.42 | 8.884.35–13.41 |
| Total shots | 13.38 | 9.67–17.08 | 8.64–18.11 | 13.29 | 9.92–16.67 | 8.99–17.60 | 26.6717.63–35.72 |
| Shots in box | 8.86 | 6.35–11.38 | 5.48–12.24 | 8.27 | 5.97–10.57 | 5.17–11.37 | 17.1310.65–23.61 |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 | 1.36–4.53 | 0.82–5.06 | 3.76 | 2.35–5.18 | 1.86–5.67 | 6.712.69–10.73 |
| Corners | 4.75 | 2.55–6.96 | 1.95–7.55 | 5.06 | 3.09–7.04 | 2.55–7.58 | 9.824.50–15.13 |
| Possession % | 45.64 | 39.32–51.95 | 37.72–53.55 | 52.95 | 46.63–59.27 | 45.03–60.86 | — |
| Passes | 416 | 350–481 | 333–499 | 500 | 436–565 | 418–583 | 916751–1081 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.17 | 68.96–77.39 | 67.65–78.69 | 78.38 | 73.88–82.89 | 72.55–84.22 | — |
| Fouls | 12.27 | 9.41–15.12 | 8.52–16.01 | 12.46 | 9.51–15.40 | 8.59–16.32 | 24.7217.12–32.33 |
| Offsides | 2.01 | 0.80–3.22 | 0.46–3.56 | 1.42 | 0.25–2.58 | 0.00–2.91 | 3.430.38–6.47 |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.29–2.95 | 1.78 | 0.66–2.90 | 0.37–3.19 | 3.400.66–6.13 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.80 | 1.39–4.21 | 1.00–4.60 | 2.92 | 1.37–4.48 | 0.94–4.91 | 5.721.93–9.51 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
25%
43%
Shots on target
48%
13%
38%
Total shots
47%
45%
Shots in box
51%
40%
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
Corners
40%
47%
Fouls
44%
47%
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
39%
17%
43%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+