Serie A· Regular Season - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.40 | 1.43–3.36 | 1.17–3.62 | 0.67 | 0.00–1.53 | 0.00–1.77 | 3.070.74–5.39 |
| Shots on target | 6.70 | 4.84–8.55 | 4.34–9.05 | 2.71 | 1.00–4.42 | 0.54–4.89 | 9.414.88–13.94 |
| Total shots | 17.36 | 13.66–21.06 | 12.63–22.10 | 8.08 | 4.70–11.46 | 3.77–12.39 | 25.4416.39–34.48 |
| Shots in box | 12.82 | 10.30–15.33 | 9.44–16.20 | 5.08 | 2.78–7.38 | 1.98–8.18 | 17.9011.42–24.37 |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 | 2.82–5.99 | 2.29–6.53 | 2.14 | 0.73–3.56 | 0.24–4.04 | 6.552.53–10.57 |
| Corners | 6.53 | 4.33–8.74 | 3.73–9.33 | 3.07 | 1.10–5.05 | 0.56–5.59 | 9.614.29–14.92 |
| Possession % | 65.53 | 59.22–71.85 | 57.62–73.45 | 35.54 | 29.22–41.86 | 27.63–43.46 | — |
| Passes | 613 | 548–678 | 530–696 | 327 | 262–391 | 245–409 | 940774–1105 |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.71 | 84.49–92.92 | 83.19–94.22 | 79.28 | 74.77–83.79 | 73.44–85.12 | — |
| Fouls | 8.96 | 6.10–11.81 | 5.21–12.70 | 11.37 | 8.43–14.32 | 7.51–15.24 | 20.3312.72–27.93 |
| Offsides | 3.08 | 1.87–4.29 | 1.52–4.63 | 1.84 | 0.68–3.00 | 0.34–3.33 | 4.921.87–7.97 |
| Yellow cards | 1.33 | 0.27–2.39 | 0.00–2.66 | 2.01 | 0.88–3.13 | 0.59–3.42 | 3.340.60–6.07 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 1.99 | 0.58–3.40 | 0.19–3.79 | 4.07 | 2.52–5.63 | 2.09–6.06 | 6.062.27–9.85 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
76%
16%
Shots on target
88%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
76%
13%
Corners
83%
Fouls
26%
66%
Offsides
63%
16%
21%
Yellow cards
25%
22%
53%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
14%
74%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+