Serie A· Regular Season - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 | 0.65–2.58 | 0.39–2.84 | 1.46 | 0.60–2.32 | 0.35–2.57 | 3.080.75–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 5.48 | 3.62–7.33 | 3.12–7.83 | 3.78 | 2.07–5.49 | 1.60–5.96 | 9.264.73–13.79 |
| Total shots | 15.01 | 11.31–18.72 | 10.28–19.75 | 10.11 | 6.73–13.48 | 5.80–14.42 | 25.1216.07–34.16 |
| Shots in box | 10.70 | 8.18–13.22 | 7.32–14.08 | 7.19 | 4.88–9.49 | 4.09–10.28 | 17.8911.41–24.36 |
| Blocked shots | 3.59 | 2.01–5.18 | 1.48–5.71 | 2.68 | 1.27–4.10 | 0.78–4.58 | 6.282.26–10.30 |
| Corners | 5.33 | 3.12–7.53 | 2.52–8.13 | 4.35 | 2.38–6.33 | 1.84–6.87 | 9.684.36–15.00 |
| Possession % | 42.97 | 36.65–49.28 | 35.05–50.88 | 55.78 | 49.46–62.10 | 47.86–63.70 | — |
| Passes | 424 | 359–489 | 341–507 | 521 | 456–586 | 439–603 | 945780–1110 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.75 | 76.53–84.97 | 75.23–86.27 | 83.89 | 79.38–88.39 | 78.05–89.72 | — |
| Fouls | 11.32 | 8.46–14.17 | 7.57–15.06 | 10.51 | 7.56–13.45 | 6.65–14.37 | 21.8214.22–29.43 |
| Offsides | 3.49 | 2.28–4.70 | 1.93–5.04 | 1.37 | 0.21–2.54 | 0.00–2.87 | 4.861.81–7.91 |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 | 1.00–3.11 | 0.72–3.38 | 2.07 | 0.95–3.19 | 0.66–3.48 | 4.121.39–6.86 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.71 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.90–4.51 | 3.34 | 1.79–4.89 | 1.35–5.33 | 6.052.26–9.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
41%
24%
35%
Shots on target
65%
23%
Total shots
81%
14%
Shots in box
76%
17%
Blocked shots
56%
15%
28%
Corners
56%
32%
Fouls
53%
39%
Offsides
77%
Yellow cards
39%
20%
40%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+