Serie A· Regular Season - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 | 1.08–3.01 | 0.82–3.27 | 0.83 | 0.00–1.68 | 0.00–1.93 | 2.870.54–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 6.27 | 4.41–8.13 | 3.92–8.63 | 2.53 | 0.83–4.24 | 0.36–4.71 | 8.804.27–13.33 |
| Total shots | 17.88 | 14.17–21.58 | 13.14–22.61 | 8.18 | 4.80–11.56 | 3.87–12.49 | 26.0517.01–35.10 |
| Shots in box | 12.76 | 10.24–15.28 | 9.38–16.14 | 4.93 | 2.63–7.23 | 1.83–8.03 | 17.6911.21–24.17 |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 | 2.66–5.83 | 2.13–6.36 | 2.52 | 1.10–3.93 | 0.62–4.42 | 6.762.74–10.78 |
| Corners | 6.53 | 4.32–8.73 | 3.73–9.33 | 3.06 | 1.08–5.04 | 0.54–5.57 | 9.594.27–14.90 |
| Possession % | 55.26 | 48.94–61.58 | 47.34–63.17 | 44.45 | 38.13–50.77 | 36.53–52.36 | — |
| Passes | 522 | 456–587 | 439–605 | 405 | 340–470 | 323–487 | 927762–1092 |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.76 | 83.55–91.98 | 82.25–93.28 | 82.32 | 77.81–86.82 | 76.48–88.15 | — |
| Fouls | 13.18 | 10.33–16.04 | 9.44–16.93 | 11.90 | 8.96–14.85 | 8.04–15.76 | 25.0817.48–32.69 |
| Offsides | 1.93 | 0.72–3.14 | 0.38–3.48 | 1.13 | 0.00–2.29 | 0.00–2.62 | 3.060.01–6.11 |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 | 0.35–2.46 | 0.08–2.73 | 2.12 | 1.00–3.24 | 0.71–3.53 | 3.520.78–6.26 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 1.90 | 0.49–3.32 | 0.10–3.71 | 3.95 | 2.40–5.50 | 1.96–5.94 | 5.852.07–9.64 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
66%
20%
14%
Shots on target
87%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
68%
19%
Corners
83%
Fouls
56%
36%
Offsides
56%
22%
22%
Yellow cards
25%
21%
54%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
14%
74%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+