Serie A· Regular Season - 5· · Stadio Benito Stirpe· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 | 0.15–2.08 | 0.00–2.34 | 2.18 | 1.32–3.04 | 1.08–3.29 | 3.300.97–5.63 |
| Shots on target | 4.36 | 2.50–6.21 | 2.00–6.71 | 6.47 | 4.76–8.18 | 4.29–8.65 | 10.836.30–15.36 |
| Total shots | 12.87 | 9.17–16.57 | 8.14–17.60 | 17.34 | 13.96–20.72 | 13.03–21.65 | 30.2121.17–39.25 |
| Shots in box | 8.11 | 5.60–10.63 | 4.73–11.49 | 12.16 | 9.86–14.46 | 9.06–15.25 | 20.2713.79–26.75 |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 | 1.34–4.51 | 0.81–5.04 | 4.63 | 3.22–6.05 | 2.73–6.53 | 7.563.54–11.57 |
| Corners | 5.04 | 2.83–7.25 | 2.24–7.84 | 6.15 | 4.17–8.13 | 3.64–8.67 | 11.195.88–16.51 |
| Possession % | 38.95 | 32.63–45.26 | 31.03–46.86 | 62.10 | 55.78–68.42 | 54.18–70.02 | — |
| Passes | 316 | 250–381 | 233–399 | 567 | 502–631 | 485–649 | 882717–1048 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.48 | 65.27–73.70 | 63.97–75.00 | 81.70 | 77.20–86.21 | 75.87–87.54 | — |
| Fouls | 11.18 | 8.33–14.04 | 7.44–14.93 | 10.35 | 7.41–13.30 | 6.49–14.22 | 21.5413.93–29.14 |
| Offsides | 2.91 | 1.70–4.12 | 1.36–4.47 | 1.36 | 0.20–2.52 | 0.00–2.85 | 4.271.22–7.32 |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 | 1.21–3.33 | 0.94–3.60 | 1.74 | 0.62–2.86 | 0.33–3.15 | 4.011.27–6.75 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 4.38 | 2.96–5.79 | 2.57–6.18 | 2.60 | 1.05–4.16 | 0.62–4.59 | 6.983.19–10.77 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
18%
20%
62%
Shots on target
21%
69%
Total shots
18%
77%
Shots in box
15%
79%
Blocked shots
21%
67%
Corners
31%
57%
Fouls
53%
39%
Offsides
69%
15%
15%
Yellow cards
50%
20%
30%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
68%
19%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+