Serie A· Regular Season - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 | 0.16–2.08 | 0.00–2.34 | 1.71 | 0.85–2.57 | 0.61–2.82 | 2.830.50–5.16 |
| Shots on target | 4.23 | 2.37–6.08 | 1.87–6.58 | 5.67 | 3.96–7.38 | 3.49–7.84 | 9.905.37–14.43 |
| Total shots | 12.20 | 8.49–15.90 | 7.46–16.93 | 15.39 | 12.01–18.77 | 11.08–19.70 | 27.5918.55–36.63 |
| Shots in box | 8.02 | 5.50–10.53 | 4.64–11.40 | 10.01 | 7.71–12.31 | 6.91–13.11 | 18.0311.55–24.51 |
| Blocked shots | 2.93 | 1.34–4.51 | 0.81–5.05 | 4.29 | 2.88–5.71 | 2.39–6.19 | 7.223.20–11.24 |
| Corners | 4.35 | 2.14–6.55 | 1.55–7.15 | 5.56 | 3.58–7.54 | 3.04–8.07 | 9.914.59–15.22 |
| Possession % | 37.03 | 30.71–43.35 | 29.12–44.95 | 62.82 | 56.50–69.14 | 54.90–70.74 | — |
| Passes | 343 | 278–408 | 260–426 | 577 | 513–642 | 495–660 | 920755–1085 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.05 | 72.83–81.27 | 71.53–82.57 | 84.32 | 79.81–88.83 | 78.48–90.16 | — |
| Fouls | 11.92 | 9.06–14.78 | 8.18–15.66 | 11.24 | 8.30–14.19 | 7.38–15.11 | 23.1615.56–30.77 |
| Offsides | 2.74 | 1.53–3.95 | 1.19–4.30 | 1.53 | 0.37–2.69 | 0.04–3.03 | 4.271.23–7.32 |
| Yellow cards | 2.47 | 1.41–3.52 | 1.14–3.79 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 4.481.74–7.22 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 4.18 | 2.77–5.60 | 2.38–5.99 | 2.72 | 1.16–4.27 | 0.73–4.70 | 6.903.11–10.69 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
25%
24%
51%
Shots on target
27%
62%
Total shots
24%
70%
Shots in box
28%
64%
Blocked shots
24%
13%
62%
Corners
29%
59%
Fouls
51%
40%
Offsides
63%
17%
20%
Yellow cards
49%
19%
32%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
64%
13%
22%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+