Serie A· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 | 0.31–2.24 | 0.05–2.50 | 1.38 | 0.52–2.24 | 0.27–2.48 | 2.660.33–4.99 |
| Shots on target | 4.29 | 2.44–6.15 | 1.94–6.65 | 4.98 | 3.28–6.69 | 2.81–7.16 | 9.274.74–13.81 |
| Total shots | 12.01 | 8.30–15.71 | 7.27–16.74 | 15.31 | 11.94–18.69 | 11.00–19.62 | 27.3218.28–36.36 |
| Shots in box | 7.03 | 4.52–9.55 | 3.65–10.41 | 9.03 | 6.73–11.34 | 5.94–12.13 | 16.079.59–22.54 |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 | 1.71–4.88 | 1.18–5.42 | 3.76 | 2.34–5.17 | 1.86–5.66 | 7.063.04–11.07 |
| Corners | 4.47 | 2.26–6.67 | 1.67–7.27 | 5.02 | 3.05–7.00 | 2.51–7.54 | 9.494.17–14.81 |
| Possession % | 46.49 | 40.17–52.81 | 38.57–54.40 | 53.82 | 47.50–60.14 | 45.91–61.74 | — |
| Passes | 441 | 375–506 | 358–524 | 497 | 432–561 | 414–579 | 937772–1102 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.56 | 81.35–89.78 | 80.05–91.08 | 85.98 | 81.48–90.49 | 80.15–91.82 | — |
| Fouls | 11.94 | 9.08–14.80 | 8.20–15.68 | 12.18 | 9.23–15.13 | 8.32–16.04 | 24.1216.51–31.72 |
| Offsides | 1.78 | 0.57–2.99 | 0.23–3.34 | 1.08 | 0.00–2.24 | 0.00–2.57 | 2.860.00–5.91 |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 | 0.92–3.03 | 0.65–3.31 | 1.99 | 0.87–3.11 | 0.58–3.40 | 3.971.23–6.71 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.16 | 1.75–4.58 | 1.36–4.97 | 2.78 | 1.23–4.34 | 0.80–4.77 | 5.952.16–9.74 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
26%
39%
Shots on target
35%
52%
Total shots
23%
70%
Shots in box
27%
65%
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
Corners
36%
51%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
54%
23%
23%
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
48%
17%
36%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+