Serie A· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 | 0.06–1.99 | 0.00–2.25 | 2.71 | 1.85–3.57 | 1.60–3.81 | 3.731.40–6.06 |
| Shots on target | 3.80 | 1.94–5.66 | 1.45–6.16 | 7.20 | 5.49–8.90 | 5.02–9.37 | 11.006.47–15.53 |
| Total shots | 10.54 | 6.83–14.24 | 5.80–15.27 | 18.04 | 14.66–21.42 | 13.73–22.35 | 28.5719.53–37.62 |
| Shots in box | 5.75 | 3.23–8.27 | 2.37–9.13 | 12.56 | 10.26–14.86 | 9.46–15.66 | 18.3111.83–24.79 |
| Blocked shots | 2.55 | 0.97–4.13 | 0.43–4.67 | 4.28 | 2.86–5.69 | 2.38–6.18 | 6.832.81–10.85 |
| Corners | 3.44 | 1.23–5.64 | 0.64–6.24 | 6.66 | 4.68–8.64 | 4.14–9.17 | 10.094.78–15.41 |
| Possession % | 38.77 | 32.45–45.09 | 30.86–46.68 | 60.00 | 53.68–66.32 | 52.08–67.91 | — |
| Passes | 370 | 304–435 | 287–453 | 590 | 525–654 | 508–672 | 960794–1125 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.45 | 76.23–84.66 | 74.93–85.96 | 88.69 | 84.19–93.20 | 82.86–94.53 | — |
| Fouls | 10.68 | 7.82–13.53 | 6.93–14.42 | 12.35 | 9.40–15.29 | 8.48–16.21 | 23.0215.42–30.63 |
| Offsides | 2.73 | 1.52–3.94 | 1.18–4.29 | 2.39 | 1.22–3.55 | 0.89–3.88 | 5.122.07–8.17 |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 | 0.87–2.98 | 0.59–3.25 | 1.87 | 0.75–2.99 | 0.46–3.28 | 3.791.05–6.53 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 4.64 | 3.22–6.05 | 2.84–6.44 | 2.58 | 1.03–4.14 | 0.60–4.57 | 7.223.43–11.01 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
15%
73%
Shots on target
81%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
93%
Blocked shots
19%
68%
Corners
81%
Fouls
33%
60%
Offsides
47%
18%
35%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
38%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
72%
17%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+