Serie A· Regular Season - 10· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.29 | 1.33–3.25 | 1.07–3.51 | 0.84 | 0.00–1.70 | 0.00–1.95 | 3.130.80–5.46 |
| Shots on target | 5.60 | 3.74–7.45 | 3.24–7.95 | 2.86 | 1.16–4.57 | 0.69–5.04 | 8.463.93–12.99 |
| Total shots | 16.52 | 12.81–20.22 | 11.78–21.25 | 9.85 | 6.47–13.23 | 5.54–14.16 | 26.3717.32–35.41 |
| Shots in box | 12.84 | 10.33–15.36 | 9.46–16.22 | 5.89 | 3.59–8.20 | 2.80–8.99 | 18.7412.26–25.22 |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 | 2.62–5.78 | 2.08–6.32 | 2.59 | 1.17–4.00 | 0.69–4.49 | 6.792.77–10.81 |
| Corners | 6.28 | 4.08–8.49 | 3.48–9.09 | 3.32 | 1.34–5.30 | 0.81–5.84 | 9.614.29–14.92 |
| Possession % | 62.63 | 56.31–68.94 | 54.71–70.54 | 37.44 | 31.12–43.76 | 29.52–45.36 | — |
| Passes | 566 | 500–631 | 483–649 | 315 | 250–380 | 233–397 | 881716–1046 |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.79 | 83.57–92.01 | 82.27–93.31 | 79.55 | 75.05–84.06 | 73.72–85.39 | — |
| Fouls | 13.00 | 10.14–15.86 | 9.26–16.74 | 14.65 | 11.71–17.60 | 10.79–18.52 | 27.6520.05–35.26 |
| Offsides | 1.18 | 0.00–2.39 | 0.00–2.73 | 1.44 | 0.28–2.60 | 0.00–2.93 | 2.620.00–5.67 |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 | 0.69–2.80 | 0.42–3.08 | 2.26 | 1.14–3.38 | 0.85–3.67 | 4.001.27–6.74 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.15 | 0.73–3.56 | 0.34–3.95 | 3.69 | 2.14–5.24 | 1.70–5.68 | 5.842.05–9.63 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
70%
18%
Shots on target
78%
Total shots
89%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
66%
13%
20%
Corners
79%
Fouls
34%
59%
Offsides
31%
26%
43%
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
19%
14%
67%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+