Serie A· Regular Season - 11· · Stadio Ennio Tardini· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.95 | 0.00–1.91 | 0.00–2.17 | 1.66 | 0.80–2.52 | 0.55–2.76 | 2.610.28–4.94 |
| Shots on target | 3.01 | 1.15–4.86 | 0.65–5.36 | 5.70 | 3.99–7.40 | 3.52–7.87 | 8.704.17–13.23 |
| Total shots | 9.60 | 5.90–13.30 | 4.87–14.33 | 16.48 | 13.10–19.86 | 12.17–20.79 | 26.0817.03–35.12 |
| Shots in box | 6.44 | 3.93–8.96 | 3.06–9.82 | 9.15 | 6.85–11.46 | 6.06–12.25 | 15.609.12–22.07 |
| Blocked shots | 2.71 | 1.13–4.29 | 0.59–4.83 | 3.99 | 2.58–5.41 | 2.09–5.89 | 6.702.68–10.72 |
| Corners | 3.54 | 1.33–5.74 | 0.74–6.34 | 5.29 | 3.32–7.27 | 2.78–7.81 | 8.833.52–14.15 |
| Possession % | 40.92 | 34.60–47.24 | 33.01–48.83 | 59.76 | 53.44–66.08 | 51.84–67.67 | — |
| Passes | 340 | 275–406 | 257–423 | 503 | 439–568 | 421–585 | 844678–1009 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.88 | 73.67–82.10 | 72.37–83.40 | 86.97 | 82.46–91.47 | 81.13–92.81 | — |
| Fouls | 12.67 | 9.81–15.53 | 8.93–16.41 | 12.07 | 9.13–15.02 | 8.21–15.94 | 24.7417.14–32.35 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.12–3.23 | 1.59 | 0.42–2.75 | 0.09–3.08 | 3.260.22–6.31 |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 | 0.95–3.06 | 0.68–3.33 | 1.84 | 0.72–2.96 | 0.43–3.25 | 3.851.11–6.58 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.64 | 2.22–5.05 | 1.84–5.44 | 2.24 | 0.69–3.80 | 0.26–4.23 | 5.882.09–9.67 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
22%
24%
54%
Shots on target
14%
77%
Total shots
90%
Shots in box
21%
71%
Blocked shots
24%
14%
62%
Corners
22%
66%
Fouls
51%
41%
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
64%
14%
21%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+