Serie A· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 | 0.41–2.33 | 0.15–2.59 | 1.42 | 0.56–2.28 | 0.32–2.53 | 2.790.46–5.12 |
| Shots on target | 5.08 | 3.22–6.93 | 2.72–7.43 | 4.48 | 2.77–6.18 | 2.30–6.65 | 9.555.02–14.08 |
| Total shots | 14.75 | 11.04–18.45 | 10.01–19.48 | 11.85 | 8.47–15.23 | 7.54–16.16 | 26.5917.55–35.64 |
| Shots in box | 7.88 | 5.37–10.40 | 4.50–11.27 | 8.47 | 6.17–10.77 | 5.37–11.57 | 16.359.87–22.83 |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 | 2.29–5.46 | 1.76–5.99 | 2.86 | 1.44–4.27 | 0.96–4.76 | 6.732.71–10.75 |
| Corners | 5.18 | 2.98–7.39 | 2.38–7.98 | 4.72 | 2.75–6.70 | 2.21–7.24 | 9.914.59–15.22 |
| Possession % | 53.13 | 46.81–59.45 | 45.22–61.05 | 46.72 | 40.40–53.03 | 38.80–54.63 | — |
| Passes | 456 | 391–522 | 373–539 | 383 | 318–447 | 301–465 | 839674–1004 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.56 | 78.34–86.77 | 77.04–88.07 | 78.99 | 74.48–83.50 | 73.15–84.83 | — |
| Fouls | 11.62 | 8.77–14.48 | 7.88–15.37 | 13.55 | 10.61–16.50 | 9.69–17.42 | 25.1817.57–32.78 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.03 | 0.27–3.38 | 2.03 | 0.87–3.20 | 0.54–3.53 | 3.860.81–6.90 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.72–2.83 | 0.45–3.11 | 2.53 | 1.41–3.65 | 1.12–3.94 | 4.311.57–7.05 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.22–4.05 | 0.83–4.44 | 3.36 | 1.81–4.92 | 1.38–5.35 | 6.002.21–9.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
36%
25%
39%
Shots on target
51%
36%
Total shots
68%
25%
Shots in box
39%
51%
Blocked shots
58%
15%
28%
Corners
49%
38%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
31%
16%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+