Serie A· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.85 | 1.89–3.81 | 1.63–4.07 | 0.73 | 0.00–1.59 | 0.00–1.83 | 3.581.25–5.90 |
| Shots on target | 7.32 | 5.46–9.17 | 4.96–9.67 | 3.13 | 1.43–4.84 | 0.96–5.31 | 10.455.92–14.98 |
| Total shots | 20.25 | 16.55–23.96 | 15.52–24.99 | 8.67 | 5.29–12.04 | 4.36–12.98 | 28.9219.88–37.96 |
| Shots in box | 14.27 | 11.75–16.78 | 10.89–17.65 | 5.99 | 3.69–8.29 | 2.89–9.09 | 20.2613.78–26.74 |
| Blocked shots | 4.77 | 3.19–6.35 | 2.65–6.89 | 2.27 | 0.85–3.68 | 0.37–4.17 | 7.043.02–11.06 |
| Corners | 7.18 | 4.97–9.38 | 4.38–9.98 | 2.79 | 0.81–4.76 | 0.27–5.30 | 9.964.65–15.28 |
| Possession % | 67.39 | 61.07–73.71 | 59.48–75.31 | 33.38 | 27.07–39.70 | 25.47–41.30 | — |
| Passes | 616 | 550–681 | 533–699 | 304 | 240–369 | 222–387 | 920755–1085 |
| Pass accuracy % | 89.34 | 85.13–93.56 | 83.83–94.86 | 75.67 | 71.16–80.18 | 69.83–81.51 | — |
| Fouls | 10.75 | 7.89–13.60 | 7.01–14.49 | 12.27 | 9.32–15.21 | 8.40–16.13 | 23.0115.41–30.62 |
| Offsides | 1.29 | 0.08–2.50 | 0.00–2.85 | 1.91 | 0.75–3.08 | 0.42–3.41 | 3.210.16–6.25 |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 | 0.62–2.73 | 0.35–3.00 | 2.20 | 1.08–3.32 | 0.79–3.61 | 3.881.14–6.62 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.11 | 0.70–3.53 | 0.31–3.92 | 4.71 | 3.16–6.27 | 2.73–6.70 | 6.833.04–10.61 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
81%
Shots on target
88%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
78%
Corners
90%
Fouls
34%
58%
Offsides
26%
22%
52%
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
79%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+