Serie A· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 | 1.22–3.15 | 0.96–3.41 | 0.69 | 0.00–1.55 | 0.00–1.79 | 2.870.54–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 6.49 | 4.63–8.34 | 4.13–8.84 | 2.49 | 0.78–4.19 | 0.31–4.66 | 8.974.44–13.50 |
| Total shots | 18.52 | 14.81–22.22 | 13.78–23.25 | 7.72 | 4.34–11.09 | 3.41–12.02 | 26.2317.19–35.27 |
| Shots in box | 12.28 | 9.77–14.80 | 8.90–15.66 | 5.38 | 3.08–7.68 | 2.28–8.48 | 17.6611.18–24.14 |
| Blocked shots | 4.75 | 3.17–6.34 | 2.63–6.87 | 2.02 | 0.61–3.44 | 0.12–3.93 | 6.782.76–10.80 |
| Corners | 6.55 | 4.34–8.75 | 3.75–9.35 | 3.24 | 1.26–5.22 | 0.73–5.76 | 9.794.47–15.10 |
| Possession % | 66.43 | 60.12–72.75 | 58.52–74.35 | 34.63 | 28.31–40.95 | 26.71–42.54 | — |
| Passes | 615 | 550–681 | 533–698 | 318 | 254–383 | 236–400 | 934769–1099 |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.97 | 84.76–93.19 | 83.45–94.49 | 76.78 | 72.28–81.29 | 70.95–82.62 | — |
| Fouls | 10.41 | 7.55–13.27 | 6.67–14.15 | 10.91 | 7.97–13.86 | 7.05–14.78 | 21.3213.72–28.93 |
| Offsides | 1.63 | 0.42–2.84 | 0.08–3.19 | 1.50 | 0.33–2.66 | 0.00–2.99 | 3.130.08–6.18 |
| Yellow cards | 1.39 | 0.33–2.44 | 0.06–2.71 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.360.62–6.10 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 1.73 | 0.32–3.15 | 0.00–3.53 | 4.13 | 2.58–5.69 | 2.15–6.12 | 5.862.07–9.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
72%
18%
Shots on target
88%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
81%
Corners
82%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
41%
24%
35%
Yellow cards
27%
22%
51%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
79%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+