Serie A· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 | 0.47–2.40 | 0.21–2.66 | 1.71 | 0.85–2.57 | 0.60–2.81 | 3.140.81–5.47 |
| Shots on target | 5.16 | 3.30–7.01 | 2.80–7.51 | 5.14 | 3.43–6.85 | 2.96–7.32 | 10.305.77–14.83 |
| Total shots | 14.70 | 11.00–18.41 | 9.97–19.44 | 13.23 | 9.85–16.61 | 8.92–17.54 | 27.9318.89–36.97 |
| Shots in box | 8.58 | 6.07–11.10 | 5.20–11.96 | 8.50 | 6.19–10.80 | 5.40–11.59 | 17.0810.60–23.56 |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 | 2.30–5.46 | 1.76–6.00 | 3.11 | 1.70–4.53 | 1.21–5.01 | 6.992.97–11.01 |
| Corners | 5.05 | 2.84–7.25 | 2.25–7.85 | 4.77 | 2.79–6.75 | 2.25–7.29 | 9.824.50–15.13 |
| Possession % | 51.78 | 45.46–58.10 | 43.86–59.69 | 49.15 | 42.84–55.47 | 41.24–57.07 | — |
| Passes | 451 | 386–517 | 368–534 | 437 | 372–502 | 355–519 | 888723–1053 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.87 | 78.66–87.09 | 77.35–88.39 | 85.43 | 80.92–89.94 | 79.59–91.27 | — |
| Fouls | 12.59 | 9.74–15.45 | 8.85–16.34 | 12.75 | 9.80–15.69 | 8.88–16.61 | 25.3417.74–32.95 |
| Offsides | 1.53 | 0.32–2.74 | 0.00–3.08 | 2.00 | 0.84–3.16 | 0.51–3.50 | 3.530.48–6.58 |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 | 0.83–2.94 | 0.56–3.22 | 2.16 | 1.04–3.28 | 0.75–3.57 | 4.041.31–6.78 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.18 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.38–4.99 | 3.23 | 1.68–4.79 | 1.25–5.22 | 6.422.63–10.21 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
23%
44%
Shots on target
44%
43%
Total shots
57%
35%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
Corners
47%
40%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
30%
22%
49%
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+