Serie A· Regular Season - 15· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 | 0.30–2.23 | 0.04–2.49 | 1.58 | 0.72–2.44 | 0.48–2.69 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 4.58 | 2.73–6.44 | 2.23–6.94 | 4.75 | 3.04–6.46 | 2.57–6.92 | 9.334.80–13.86 |
| Total shots | 14.27 | 10.57–17.97 | 9.54–19.01 | 12.39 | 9.01–15.77 | 8.08–16.70 | 26.6617.62–35.70 |
| Shots in box | 9.52 | 7.01–12.04 | 6.14–12.90 | 7.89 | 5.59–10.19 | 4.79–10.99 | 17.4210.94–23.90 |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 | 2.28–5.45 | 1.75–5.99 | 2.96 | 1.54–4.37 | 1.06–4.86 | 6.832.81–10.85 |
| Corners | 5.43 | 3.22–7.63 | 2.63–8.23 | 4.43 | 2.46–6.41 | 1.92–6.95 | 9.864.54–15.18 |
| Possession % | 47.96 | 41.64–54.28 | 40.05–55.88 | 51.59 | 45.27–57.91 | 43.68–59.51 | — |
| Passes | 408 | 343–474 | 326–491 | 452 | 388–517 | 370–534 | 861696–1026 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.51 | 77.29–85.73 | 75.99–87.03 | 85.09 | 80.58–89.59 | 79.25–90.92 | — |
| Fouls | 12.66 | 9.80–15.51 | 8.91–16.40 | 11.32 | 8.37–14.26 | 7.45–15.18 | 23.9716.37–31.58 |
| Offsides | 1.28 | 0.07–2.49 | 0.00–2.83 | 2.28 | 1.12–3.45 | 0.79–3.78 | 3.560.51–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 | 0.75–2.86 | 0.47–3.13 | 1.82 | 0.70–2.94 | 0.41–3.23 | 3.620.88–6.36 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.23 | 1.82–4.65 | 1.43–5.04 | 2.99 | 1.44–4.55 | 1.01–4.98 | 6.232.44–10.02 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
30%
25%
45%
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
61%
30%
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
Corners
56%
32%
Fouls
57%
35%
Offsides
20%
20%
60%
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+