Serie A· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.09 | 1.13–3.06 | 0.87–3.32 | 1.37 | 0.51–2.23 | 0.26–2.48 | 3.461.13–5.79 |
| Shots on target | 5.79 | 3.93–7.64 | 3.43–8.14 | 4.01 | 2.30–5.72 | 1.84–6.19 | 9.805.27–14.33 |
| Total shots | 15.52 | 11.81–19.22 | 10.78–20.25 | 11.68 | 8.30–15.06 | 7.37–15.99 | 27.2018.15–36.24 |
| Shots in box | 10.25 | 7.73–12.77 | 6.87–13.63 | 7.78 | 5.48–10.08 | 4.68–10.88 | 18.0311.55–24.51 |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 | 2.54–5.70 | 2.00–6.24 | 3.19 | 1.78–4.60 | 1.29–5.09 | 7.313.29–11.33 |
| Corners | 5.69 | 3.48–7.89 | 2.89–8.49 | 4.15 | 2.17–6.12 | 1.63–6.66 | 9.834.52–15.15 |
| Possession % | 59.17 | 52.85–65.49 | 51.25–67.08 | 39.49 | 33.17–45.81 | 31.57–47.40 | — |
| Passes | 585 | 520–651 | 502–668 | 392 | 328–457 | 310–474 | 977812–1143 |
| Pass accuracy % | 89.37 | 85.15–93.58 | 83.85–94.89 | 83.19 | 78.69–87.70 | 77.36–89.03 | — |
| Fouls | 10.50 | 7.64–13.36 | 6.76–14.24 | 12.05 | 9.11–15.00 | 8.19–15.91 | 22.5514.94–30.16 |
| Offsides | 1.93 | 0.72–3.14 | 0.37–3.48 | 2.06 | 0.90–3.22 | 0.57–3.56 | 3.990.94–7.04 |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 | 0.56–2.68 | 0.29–2.95 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 3.630.89–6.36 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.03 | 1.62–4.45 | 1.23–4.84 | 3.52 | 1.97–5.08 | 1.54–5.51 | 6.562.77–10.35 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
21%
25%
Shots on target
66%
23%
Total shots
74%
20%
Shots in box
68%
24%
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
Corners
63%
26%
Fouls
33%
59%
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
35%
16%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+