Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 | 0.32–2.24 | 0.06–2.50 | 1.36 | 0.50–2.22 | 0.26–2.47 | 2.640.31–4.97 |
| Shots on target | 4.42 | 2.56–6.27 | 2.06–6.77 | 3.91 | 2.20–5.62 | 1.73–6.09 | 8.333.80–12.86 |
| Total shots | 13.90 | 10.19–17.60 | 9.16–18.63 | 12.21 | 8.83–15.59 | 7.90–16.52 | 26.1017.06–35.15 |
| Shots in box | 8.37 | 5.85–10.89 | 4.99–11.75 | 8.10 | 5.79–10.40 | 5.00–11.19 | 16.479.99–22.94 |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 | 2.16–5.32 | 1.62–5.86 | 3.08 | 1.67–4.50 | 1.18–4.99 | 6.822.81–10.84 |
| Corners | 5.04 | 2.84–7.25 | 2.24–7.84 | 4.28 | 2.30–6.25 | 1.76–6.79 | 9.324.00–14.63 |
| Possession % | 49.22 | 42.90–55.53 | 41.30–57.13 | 51.06 | 44.74–57.38 | 43.14–58.97 | — |
| Passes | 452 | 387–517 | 369–535 | 491 | 427–556 | 409–574 | 944778–1109 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.25 | 81.04–89.47 | 79.74–90.77 | 87.30 | 82.79–91.81 | 81.46–93.14 | — |
| Fouls | 12.63 | 9.78–15.49 | 8.89–16.37 | 12.85 | 9.90–15.79 | 8.98–16.71 | 25.4817.87–33.09 |
| Offsides | 1.59 | 0.38–2.80 | 0.04–3.15 | 1.47 | 0.31–2.63 | 0.00–2.96 | 3.060.01–6.11 |
| Yellow cards | 1.93 | 0.88–2.99 | 0.60–3.26 | 2.35 | 1.23–3.47 | 0.94–3.76 | 4.281.54–7.02 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.65 | 1.23–4.06 | 0.84–4.45 | 2.93 | 1.38–4.49 | 0.95–4.92 | 5.581.79–9.37 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
26%
39%
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
Total shots
59%
33%
Shots in box
48%
42%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
Corners
53%
34%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
41%
24%
35%
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+