Serie A· Regular Season - 31· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.56 | 1.60–3.52 | 1.34–3.78 | 0.74 | 0.00–1.60 | 0.00–1.85 | 3.300.97–5.63 |
| Shots on target | 7.34 | 5.48–9.19 | 4.98–9.69 | 2.65 | 0.95–4.36 | 0.48–4.83 | 9.995.46–14.52 |
| Total shots | 19.54 | 15.83–23.24 | 14.80–24.27 | 9.11 | 5.73–12.49 | 4.80–13.42 | 28.6419.60–37.69 |
| Shots in box | 14.27 | 11.75–16.79 | 10.89–17.65 | 5.33 | 3.02–7.63 | 2.23–8.42 | 19.6013.12–26.08 |
| Blocked shots | 5.10 | 3.51–6.68 | 2.98–7.22 | 2.29 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.39–4.19 | 7.393.37–11.41 |
| Corners | 7.39 | 5.19–9.60 | 4.59–10.19 | 2.97 | 0.99–4.94 | 0.45–5.48 | 10.365.04–15.68 |
| Possession % | 62.56 | 56.25–68.88 | 54.65–70.48 | 37.13 | 30.82–43.45 | 29.22–45.05 | — |
| Passes | 565 | 499–630 | 482–648 | 334 | 269–399 | 252–416 | 899734–1064 |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.07 | 82.85–91.28 | 81.55–92.59 | 77.79 | 73.28–82.30 | 71.95–83.63 | — |
| Fouls | 11.11 | 8.26–13.97 | 7.37–14.86 | 11.46 | 8.52–14.41 | 7.60–15.33 | 22.5814.97–30.18 |
| Offsides | 2.78 | 1.57–3.99 | 1.22–4.33 | 1.39 | 0.23–2.55 | 0.00–2.88 | 4.161.12–7.21 |
| Yellow cards | 1.31 | 0.26–2.37 | 0.00–2.64 | 1.80 | 0.68–2.92 | 0.39–3.21 | 3.110.37–5.85 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 1.89 | 0.48–3.31 | 0.09–3.70 | 4.22 | 2.67–5.78 | 2.24–6.21 | 6.122.33–9.90 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
77%
15%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
80%
Corners
89%
Fouls
43%
49%
Offsides
67%
16%
17%
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
77%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+