Serie A· Regular Season - 34· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 | 0.56–2.49 | 0.30–2.75 | 1.00 | 0.14–1.86 | 0.00–2.11 | 2.520.20–4.85 |
| Shots on target | 5.23 | 3.38–7.09 | 2.88–7.59 | 3.38 | 1.68–5.09 | 1.21–5.56 | 8.624.08–13.15 |
| Total shots | 16.30 | 12.59–20.00 | 11.56–21.03 | 11.31 | 7.93–14.68 | 7.00–15.62 | 27.6018.56–36.65 |
| Shots in box | 10.24 | 7.72–12.75 | 6.86–13.62 | 6.91 | 4.61–9.21 | 3.81–10.01 | 17.1510.67–23.63 |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 | 2.51–5.68 | 1.98–6.21 | 2.98 | 1.57–4.40 | 1.08–4.88 | 7.083.06–11.10 |
| Corners | 5.40 | 3.19–7.60 | 2.60–8.20 | 4.00 | 2.02–5.98 | 1.49–6.52 | 9.404.09–14.72 |
| Possession % | 57.80 | 51.48–64.12 | 49.89–65.72 | 41.44 | 35.12–47.76 | 33.52–49.36 | — |
| Passes | 501 | 436–567 | 418–584 | 345 | 281–410 | 263–428 | 847681–1012 |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.30 | 84.08–92.51 | 82.78–93.81 | 82.84 | 78.33–87.34 | 77.00–88.67 | — |
| Fouls | 12.06 | 9.20–14.92 | 8.32–15.80 | 13.10 | 10.16–16.05 | 9.24–16.97 | 25.1617.56–32.77 |
| Offsides | 1.61 | 0.40–2.82 | 0.05–3.16 | 1.21 | 0.05–2.38 | 0.00–2.71 | 2.820.00–5.87 |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 | 0.74–2.85 | 0.47–3.12 | 2.02 | 0.90–3.15 | 0.61–3.44 | 3.821.08–6.56 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.18 | 0.77–3.60 | 0.38–3.99 | 3.71 | 2.16–5.27 | 1.73–5.70 | 5.902.11–9.69 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
26%
25%
Shots on target
68%
21%
Total shots
80%
15%
Shots in box
75%
18%
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
Corners
61%
27%
Fouls
38%
54%
Offsides
47%
25%
29%
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+