Serie A· Regular Season - 34· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.88 | 0.92–2.84 | 0.66–3.10 | 1.24 | 0.38–2.10 | 0.14–2.35 | 3.120.79–5.45 |
| Shots on target | 6.00 | 4.14–7.86 | 3.65–8.36 | 4.30 | 2.60–6.01 | 2.13–6.48 | 10.305.77–14.83 |
| Total shots | 17.78 | 14.08–21.49 | 13.05–22.52 | 13.11 | 9.73–16.49 | 8.80–17.42 | 30.8921.85–39.93 |
| Shots in box | 10.16 | 7.64–12.67 | 6.78–13.54 | 8.66 | 6.36–10.97 | 5.57–11.76 | 18.8212.34–25.30 |
| Blocked shots | 4.22 | 2.64–5.81 | 2.10–6.34 | 3.21 | 1.80–4.63 | 1.31–5.12 | 7.443.42–11.46 |
| Corners | 6.13 | 3.92–8.33 | 3.33–8.93 | 4.65 | 2.68–6.63 | 2.14–7.17 | 10.785.47–16.10 |
| Possession % | 58.82 | 52.51–65.14 | 50.91–66.74 | 41.43 | 35.11–47.75 | 33.51–49.34 | — |
| Passes | 517 | 451–582 | 434–599 | 356 | 291–421 | 274–438 | 873707–1038 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.61 | 82.39–90.82 | 81.09–92.12 | 77.41 | 72.90–81.91 | 71.57–83.24 | — |
| Fouls | 10.86 | 8.01–13.72 | 7.12–14.61 | 12.79 | 9.85–15.74 | 8.93–16.66 | 23.6616.05–31.26 |
| Offsides | 1.44 | 0.23–2.65 | 0.00–2.99 | 1.43 | 0.26–2.59 | 0.00–2.92 | 2.860.00–5.91 |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 | 0.32–2.43 | 0.05–2.70 | 1.86 | 0.74–2.98 | 0.45–3.28 | 3.240.50–5.98 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.46 | 1.04–3.87 | 0.65–4.26 | 3.94 | 2.38–5.49 | 1.95–5.92 | 6.392.61–10.18 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
23%
25%
Shots on target
64%
25%
Total shots
77%
18%
Shots in box
59%
32%
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
Corners
62%
27%
Fouls
31%
62%
Offsides
38%
25%
37%
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+