Serie A· Regular Season - 38· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 | 0.64–2.56 | 0.38–2.82 | 1.63 | 0.77–2.49 | 0.52–2.73 | 3.230.90–5.56 |
| Shots on target | 4.70 | 2.85–6.56 | 2.35–7.06 | 4.53 | 2.82–6.24 | 2.36–6.71 | 9.244.71–13.77 |
| Total shots | 14.46 | 10.76–18.16 | 9.72–19.19 | 11.65 | 8.27–15.02 | 7.34–15.95 | 26.1017.06–35.15 |
| Shots in box | 8.97 | 6.45–11.48 | 5.59–12.35 | 7.68 | 5.38–9.98 | 4.58–10.78 | 16.6410.16–23.12 |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 | 1.77–4.94 | 1.23–5.47 | 2.71 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.81–4.61 | 6.062.04–10.08 |
| Corners | 5.25 | 3.04–7.45 | 2.45–8.05 | 4.20 | 2.23–6.18 | 1.69–6.72 | 9.454.14–14.77 |
| Possession % | 46.32 | 40.00–52.63 | 38.40–54.23 | 53.93 | 47.61–60.25 | 46.01–61.84 | — |
| Passes | 395 | 330–461 | 312–478 | 456 | 391–520 | 373–538 | 851686–1016 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.92 | 76.70–85.14 | 75.40–86.44 | 83.20 | 78.69–87.70 | 77.36–89.03 | — |
| Fouls | 13.03 | 10.18–15.89 | 9.29–16.77 | 11.53 | 8.58–14.47 | 7.66–15.39 | 24.5616.95–32.17 |
| Offsides | 1.97 | 0.76–3.18 | 0.42–3.52 | 2.39 | 1.23–3.55 | 0.89–3.88 | 4.361.31–7.41 |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 | 0.54–2.65 | 0.27–2.92 | 1.51 | 0.39–2.63 | 0.10–2.92 | 3.110.37–5.84 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.75 | 1.34–4.17 | 0.95–4.56 | 3.25 | 1.70–4.81 | 1.27–5.24 | 6.002.21–9.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
38%
23%
39%
Shots on target
46%
13%
41%
Total shots
67%
26%
Shots in box
58%
33%
Blocked shots
52%
16%
32%
Corners
57%
31%
Fouls
58%
34%
Offsides
33%
19%
48%
Yellow cards
40%
24%
36%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+