Eredivisie· Regular Season - 7· · Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 | 0.53–2.45 | 0.27–2.71 | 1.71 | 0.85–2.57 | 0.60–2.82 | 3.200.87–5.53 |
| Shots on target | 5.06 | 3.20–6.92 | 2.71–7.42 | 5.09 | 3.39–6.80 | 2.92–7.27 | 10.155.62–14.68 |
| Total shots | 14.43 | 10.73–18.13 | 9.70–19.16 | 14.51 | 11.14–17.89 | 10.20–18.82 | 28.9419.90–37.99 |
| Shots in box | 9.68 | 7.16–12.19 | 6.30–13.06 | 9.54 | 7.24–11.84 | 6.44–12.64 | 19.2112.74–25.69 |
| Blocked shots | 4.26 | 2.68–5.85 | 2.15–6.38 | 4.43 | 3.02–5.85 | 2.53–6.33 | 8.704.68–12.72 |
| Corners | 5.30 | 3.09–7.50 | 2.50–8.10 | 5.49 | 3.51–7.47 | 2.97–8.01 | 10.795.47–16.11 |
| Possession % | 46.89 | 40.57–53.21 | 38.98–54.81 | 52.79 | 46.47–59.11 | 44.88–60.71 | — |
| Passes | 406 | 340–471 | 323–489 | 465 | 400–529 | 383–547 | 870705–1035 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.93 | 66.71–75.14 | 65.41–76.44 | 73.11 | 68.60–77.62 | 67.27–78.95 | — |
| Fouls | 10.45 | 7.59–13.31 | 6.71–14.19 | 11.46 | 8.52–14.41 | 7.60–15.33 | 21.9114.31–29.52 |
| Offsides | 1.57 | 0.36–2.78 | 0.02–3.13 | 1.46 | 0.30–2.63 | 0.00–2.96 | 3.030.00–6.08 |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 | 0.62–2.73 | 0.35–3.00 | 1.83 | 0.71–2.95 | 0.42–3.24 | 3.500.76–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.55 | 2.13–4.96 | 1.74–5.35 | 3.10 | 1.54–4.65 | 1.11–5.08 | 6.642.85–10.43 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
23%
43%
Shots on target
43%
44%
Total shots
46%
47%
Shots in box
47%
44%
Blocked shots
41%
14%
45%
Corners
42%
46%
Fouls
37%
54%
Offsides
40%
24%
36%
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
49%
16%
35%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+