Eredivisie· Regular Season - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.60 | 1.64–3.56 | 1.38–3.82 | 0.83 | 0.00–1.69 | 0.00–1.93 | 3.431.10–5.76 |
| Shots on target | 7.32 | 5.47–9.18 | 4.97–9.68 | 2.74 | 1.03–4.44 | 0.56–4.91 | 10.065.53–14.59 |
| Total shots | 20.18 | 16.48–23.88 | 15.45–24.91 | 7.88 | 4.51–11.26 | 3.57–12.19 | 28.0619.02–37.11 |
| Shots in box | 14.16 | 11.64–16.67 | 10.78–17.54 | 6.08 | 3.78–8.38 | 2.98–9.18 | 20.2413.76–26.72 |
| Blocked shots | 5.65 | 4.07–7.24 | 3.53–7.77 | 2.38 | 0.96–3.79 | 0.48–4.28 | 8.034.01–12.05 |
| Corners | 7.55 | 5.35–9.76 | 4.75–10.35 | 3.66 | 1.68–5.64 | 1.14–6.17 | 11.215.89–16.53 |
| Possession % | 63.17 | 56.86–69.49 | 55.26–71.09 | 37.20 | 30.88–43.52 | 29.29–45.12 | — |
| Passes | 595 | 529–660 | 512–678 | 351 | 286–415 | 268–433 | 945780–1110 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.75 | 69.53–77.96 | 68.23–79.26 | 63.35 | 58.85–67.86 | 57.52–69.19 | — |
| Fouls | 7.73 | 4.88–10.59 | 3.99–11.48 | 11.61 | 8.67–14.56 | 7.75–15.48 | 19.3511.74–26.95 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.13–3.23 | 1.94 | 0.78–3.10 | 0.45–3.44 | 3.620.57–6.67 |
| Yellow cards | 1.06 | 0.01–2.12 | 0.00–2.39 | 1.88 | 0.76–3.00 | 0.47–3.29 | 2.950.21–5.69 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.17 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.04 | 0.63–3.46 | 0.24–3.84 | 4.26 | 2.71–5.82 | 2.28–6.25 | 6.312.52–10.09 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
75%
15%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
84%
Corners
85%
Fouls
16%
78%
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
Yellow cards
21%
22%
57%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
13%
75%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+