Eredivisie· Regular Season - 12· · Fortuna Sittard Stadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 | 0.63–2.55 | 0.37–2.81 | 1.34 | 0.48–2.20 | 0.23–2.44 | 2.920.60–5.25 |
| Shots on target | 4.20 | 2.34–6.05 | 1.84–6.55 | 3.84 | 2.13–5.55 | 1.66–6.01 | 8.043.51–12.57 |
| Total shots | 10.75 | 7.04–14.45 | 6.01–15.48 | 9.70 | 6.32–13.08 | 5.39–14.01 | 20.4411.40–29.49 |
| Shots in box | 10.10 | 7.58–12.61 | 6.72–13.48 | 8.02 | 5.72–10.32 | 4.92–11.12 | 18.1211.64–24.60 |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 | 2.55–5.72 | 2.02–6.25 | 2.93 | 1.51–4.34 | 1.03–4.83 | 7.063.04–11.08 |
| Corners | 4.43 | 2.23–6.64 | 1.63–7.23 | 5.18 | 3.20–7.15 | 2.66–7.69 | 9.614.29–14.92 |
| Possession % | 50.63 | 44.31–56.94 | 42.71–58.54 | 49.34 | 43.02–55.66 | 41.43–57.26 | — |
| Passes | 393 | 328–459 | 310–476 | 421 | 356–486 | 339–503 | 814649–979 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.17 | 65.95–74.38 | 64.65–75.68 | 68.17 | 63.66–72.68 | 62.33–74.01 | — |
| Fouls | 11.37 | 8.51–14.22 | 7.62–15.11 | 13.38 | 10.44–16.33 | 9.52–17.25 | 24.7517.14–32.35 |
| Offsides | 1.71 | 0.50–2.92 | 0.15–3.26 | 1.71 | 0.55–2.87 | 0.22–3.21 | 3.420.37–6.47 |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 | 0.64–2.76 | 0.37–3.03 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.460.72–6.20 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.080.00–0.72 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.22–4.05 | 0.83–4.44 | 2.29 | 0.74–3.85 | 0.31–4.28 | 4.931.14–8.72 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
24%
32%
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
Total shots
55%
37%
Shots in box
64%
27%
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
Corners
34%
53%
Fouls
31%
62%
Offsides
39%
23%
39%
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
Red cards
93%
GK saves
47%
18%
35%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+