Eredivisie· Regular Season - 12· · De Grolsch Veste· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 | 0.79–2.72 | 0.53–2.98 | 1.36 | 0.50–2.21 | 0.25–2.46 | 3.110.78–5.44 |
| Shots on target | 6.73 | 4.87–8.58 | 4.37–9.08 | 4.43 | 2.72–6.14 | 2.25–6.61 | 11.166.63–15.69 |
| Total shots | 17.76 | 14.06–21.47 | 13.03–22.50 | 11.49 | 8.11–14.86 | 7.18–15.79 | 29.2520.21–38.29 |
| Shots in box | 11.10 | 8.59–13.62 | 7.72–14.48 | 8.29 | 5.99–10.59 | 5.19–11.39 | 19.3912.91–25.87 |
| Blocked shots | 4.63 | 3.04–6.21 | 2.51–6.74 | 3.40 | 1.99–4.82 | 1.50–5.30 | 8.034.01–12.05 |
| Corners | 6.03 | 3.83–8.24 | 3.23–8.83 | 4.13 | 2.15–6.11 | 1.62–6.65 | 10.164.85–15.48 |
| Possession % | 51.07 | 44.75–57.39 | 43.16–58.99 | 47.95 | 41.63–54.27 | 40.03–55.87 | — |
| Passes | 500 | 435–566 | 418–583 | 464 | 400–529 | 382–547 | 965800–1130 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.07 | 74.85–83.28 | 73.55–84.58 | 79.66 | 75.16–84.17 | 73.83–85.50 | — |
| Fouls | 9.75 | 6.89–12.61 | 6.01–13.49 | 10.08 | 7.13–13.02 | 6.21–13.94 | 19.8312.22–27.43 |
| Offsides | 1.98 | 0.77–3.19 | 0.43–3.54 | 1.59 | 0.43–2.75 | 0.09–3.08 | 3.570.52–6.62 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.57–2.68 | 0.30–2.96 | 2.06 | 0.94–3.18 | 0.65–3.47 | 3.690.95–6.42 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.08 | 1.66–4.49 | 1.27–4.88 | 3.46 | 1.91–5.02 | 1.48–5.45 | 6.542.75–10.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
23%
30%
Shots on target
70%
20%
Total shots
86%
Shots in box
70%
22%
Blocked shots
60%
13%
27%
Corners
67%
22%
Fouls
43%
48%
Offsides
47%
22%
31%
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+