Eredivisie· Regular Season - 14· · Kooi Stadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 | 0.42–2.34 | 0.16–2.60 | 1.43 | 0.58–2.29 | 0.33–2.54 | 2.810.49–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 5.28 | 3.42–7.14 | 2.92–7.63 | 3.56 | 1.85–5.27 | 1.38–5.73 | 8.844.31–13.37 |
| Total shots | 15.38 | 11.68–19.08 | 10.65–20.11 | 11.29 | 7.91–14.67 | 6.98–15.60 | 26.6717.63–35.71 |
| Shots in box | 9.11 | 6.59–11.63 | 5.73–12.49 | 9.11 | 6.81–11.41 | 6.01–12.21 | 18.2211.74–24.70 |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 | 2.28–5.44 | 1.74–5.98 | 3.52 | 2.10–4.93 | 1.62–5.42 | 7.383.36–11.40 |
| Corners | 5.70 | 3.50–7.91 | 2.90–8.50 | 5.08 | 3.10–7.06 | 2.56–7.59 | 10.785.46–16.10 |
| Possession % | 47.02 | 40.71–53.34 | 39.11–54.94 | 53.30 | 46.98–59.62 | 45.39–61.22 | — |
| Passes | 417 | 351–482 | 334–500 | 432 | 367–496 | 350–514 | 848683–1014 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.00 | 63.79–72.22 | 62.49–73.52 | 70.14 | 65.64–74.65 | 64.31–75.98 | — |
| Fouls | 11.32 | 8.46–14.18 | 7.58–15.06 | 11.55 | 8.60–14.49 | 7.68–15.41 | 22.8715.26–30.47 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.03 | 0.26–3.37 | 1.06 | 0.00–2.22 | 0.00–2.56 | 2.880.00–5.93 |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 | 0.54–2.65 | 0.27–2.92 | 2.11 | 0.99–3.23 | 0.70–3.52 | 3.700.97–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.60 | 1.18–4.01 | 0.79–4.40 | 3.45 | 1.90–5.01 | 1.47–5.44 | 6.052.26–9.84 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
36%
25%
39%
Shots on target
66%
23%
Total shots
76%
19%
Shots in box
45%
45%
Blocked shots
48%
15%
38%
Corners
51%
37%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
55%
23%
22%
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
29%
16%
56%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+