Eredivisie· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 | 0.58–2.50 | 0.32–2.76 | 1.31 | 0.45–2.17 | 0.20–2.41 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 5.81 | 3.95–7.67 | 3.45–8.16 | 4.52 | 2.81–6.22 | 2.34–6.69 | 10.325.79–14.86 |
| Total shots | 15.82 | 12.12–19.52 | 11.09–20.55 | 11.92 | 8.54–15.30 | 7.61–16.23 | 27.7418.70–36.79 |
| Shots in box | 10.46 | 7.95–12.98 | 7.08–13.84 | 8.02 | 5.72–10.33 | 4.93–11.12 | 18.4912.01–24.97 |
| Blocked shots | 4.00 | 2.42–5.58 | 1.88–6.12 | 3.22 | 1.81–4.64 | 1.32–5.12 | 7.223.20–11.24 |
| Corners | 5.55 | 3.34–7.75 | 2.75–8.35 | 4.32 | 2.34–6.29 | 1.80–6.83 | 9.864.55–15.18 |
| Possession % | 50.45 | 44.13–56.76 | 42.53–58.36 | 49.94 | 43.62–56.26 | 42.02–57.85 | — |
| Passes | 488 | 423–554 | 405–571 | 478 | 413–542 | 396–560 | 966801–1131 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.44 | 68.22–76.66 | 66.92–77.96 | 78.52 | 74.01–83.03 | 72.68–84.36 | — |
| Fouls | 9.70 | 6.85–12.56 | 5.96–13.45 | 10.26 | 7.32–13.21 | 6.40–14.13 | 19.9712.36–27.57 |
| Offsides | 2.20 | 0.99–3.41 | 0.65–3.76 | 1.64 | 0.48–2.80 | 0.15–3.14 | 3.840.79–6.89 |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.26–2.91 | 1.90 | 0.78–3.02 | 0.49–3.31 | 3.480.75–6.22 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 3.26 | 1.85–4.68 | 1.46–5.07 | 3.17 | 1.61–4.72 | 1.18–5.15 | 6.432.64–10.22 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
25%
32%
Shots on target
60%
29%
Total shots
74%
20%
Shots in box
67%
25%
Blocked shots
54%
15%
32%
Corners
59%
29%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
43%
16%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+