Eredivisie· Regular Season - 15· · Johan Cruijff Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.21 | 1.25–3.17 | 0.99–3.43 | 1.02 | 0.16–1.88 | 0.00–2.13 | 3.230.90–5.56 |
| Shots on target | 7.90 | 6.05–9.76 | 5.55–10.26 | 3.31 | 1.61–5.02 | 1.14–5.49 | 11.226.69–15.75 |
| Total shots | 20.73 | 17.03–24.44 | 16.00–25.47 | 8.39 | 5.01–11.77 | 4.08–12.70 | 29.1220.08–38.16 |
| Shots in box | 12.66 | 10.14–15.17 | 9.27–16.04 | 6.45 | 4.15–8.75 | 3.35–9.55 | 19.1012.62–25.58 |
| Blocked shots | 5.35 | 3.77–6.93 | 3.23–7.47 | 2.22 | 0.80–3.63 | 0.31–4.12 | 7.573.55–11.59 |
| Corners | 7.59 | 5.38–9.79 | 4.79–10.39 | 3.26 | 1.28–5.24 | 0.74–5.78 | 10.855.53–16.16 |
| Possession % | 62.59 | 56.27–68.91 | 54.68–70.50 | 36.83 | 30.51–43.15 | 28.92–44.75 | — |
| Passes | 617 | 552–682 | 534–700 | 376 | 311–440 | 293–458 | 993827–1158 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.03 | 76.82–85.25 | 75.52–86.55 | 66.41 | 61.90–70.92 | 60.57–72.25 | — |
| Fouls | 7.24 | 4.39–10.10 | 3.50–10.99 | 11.74 | 8.79–14.68 | 7.87–15.60 | 18.9811.37–26.59 |
| Offsides | 1.73 | 0.52–2.94 | 0.18–3.28 | 2.17 | 1.01–3.34 | 0.68–3.67 | 3.900.85–6.95 |
| Yellow cards | 1.18 | 0.12–2.23 | 0.00–2.51 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 3.100.36–5.84 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.17 | 0.75–3.58 | 0.36–3.97 | 4.55 | 2.99–6.10 | 2.56–6.53 | 6.722.93–10.50 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
64%
19%
16%
Shots on target
89%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
91%
Blocked shots
83%
Corners
88%
Fouls
82%
Offsides
31%
21%
48%
Yellow cards
23%
22%
55%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
77%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+