Eredivisie· Regular Season - 16· · De Grolsch Veste· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.89 | 1.92–3.85 | 1.66–4.11 | 0.89 | 0.03–1.75 | 0.00–2.00 | 3.781.45–6.11 |
| Shots on target | 8.25 | 6.39–10.10 | 5.89–10.60 | 2.91 | 1.20–4.62 | 0.73–5.09 | 11.166.63–15.69 |
| Total shots | 22.63 | 18.92–26.33 | 17.89–27.36 | 8.34 | 4.96–11.72 | 4.03–12.65 | 30.9721.93–40.01 |
| Shots in box | 15.19 | 12.67–17.70 | 11.81–18.57 | 6.12 | 3.82–8.42 | 3.02–9.22 | 21.3114.83–27.79 |
| Blocked shots | 6.04 | 4.46–7.63 | 3.92–8.16 | 2.57 | 1.15–3.98 | 0.67–4.47 | 8.614.59–12.63 |
| Corners | 7.96 | 5.75–10.16 | 5.16–10.76 | 3.31 | 1.33–5.29 | 0.80–5.83 | 11.275.95–16.59 |
| Possession % | 63.63 | 57.32–69.95 | 55.72–71.55 | 37.06 | 30.74–43.38 | 29.14–44.98 | — |
| Passes | 627 | 562–692 | 544–710 | 366 | 301–431 | 284–448 | 993828–1158 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.97 | 78.75–87.19 | 77.45–88.49 | 67.96 | 63.45–72.47 | 62.12–73.80 | — |
| Fouls | 9.57 | 6.72–12.43 | 5.83–13.32 | 9.34 | 6.40–12.29 | 5.48–13.21 | 18.9211.31–26.52 |
| Offsides | 1.71 | 0.50–2.92 | 0.16–3.26 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.48 | 0.00–2.82 | 3.030.00–6.08 |
| Yellow cards | 1.06 | 0.01–2.12 | 0.00–2.39 | 1.74 | 0.62–2.86 | 0.33–3.15 | 2.810.07–5.54 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.17 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.09 | 0.67–3.50 | 0.29–3.89 | 4.70 | 3.15–6.26 | 2.72–6.69 | 6.793.00–10.58 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
78%
13%
Shots on target
93%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
85%
Corners
90%
Fouls
47%
43%
Offsides
47%
24%
30%
Yellow cards
23%
24%
53%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
79%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+