Eredivisie· Regular Season - 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 | 0.31–2.23 | 0.05–2.49 | 1.43 | 0.57–2.28 | 0.32–2.53 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 3.73 | 1.87–5.58 | 1.37–6.08 | 5.05 | 3.34–6.76 | 2.87–7.22 | 8.784.25–13.31 |
| Total shots | 11.32 | 7.62–15.02 | 6.58–16.05 | 15.13 | 11.75–18.50 | 10.82–19.43 | 26.4417.40–35.49 |
| Shots in box | 8.57 | 6.06–11.09 | 5.19–11.95 | 8.52 | 6.22–10.82 | 5.42–11.62 | 17.0910.61–23.57 |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 | 2.10–5.27 | 1.57–5.80 | 3.74 | 2.32–5.15 | 1.84–5.64 | 7.423.40–11.44 |
| Corners | 3.83 | 1.62–6.03 | 1.03–6.63 | 5.13 | 3.15–7.11 | 2.61–7.64 | 8.953.64–14.27 |
| Possession % | 48.10 | 41.78–54.42 | 40.18–56.01 | 52.45 | 46.13–58.77 | 44.54–60.37 | — |
| Passes | 402 | 337–468 | 319–485 | 427 | 362–492 | 345–509 | 829664–994 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.46 | 62.25–70.68 | 60.95–71.98 | 67.92 | 63.41–72.42 | 62.08–73.75 | — |
| Fouls | 11.92 | 9.06–14.78 | 8.18–15.66 | 10.63 | 7.69–13.58 | 6.77–14.49 | 22.5514.94–30.15 |
| Offsides | 1.79 | 0.58–3.00 | 0.24–3.35 | 1.42 | 0.26–2.59 | 0.00–2.92 | 3.220.17–6.26 |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 | 0.50–2.61 | 0.22–2.88 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.310.57–6.05 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.12 | 1.71–4.54 | 1.32–4.93 | 2.37 | 0.82–3.93 | 0.39–4.36 | 5.501.71–9.29 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
26%
41%
Shots on target
27%
61%
Total shots
20%
74%
Shots in box
46%
45%
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
Corners
27%
60%
Fouls
57%
35%
Offsides
46%
23%
31%
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
54%
17%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+