Eredivisie· Regular Season - 17· · Philips Stadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.34 | 2.37–4.30 | 2.11–4.56 | 0.60 | 0.00–1.46 | 0.00–1.71 | 3.941.61–6.27 |
| Shots on target | 10.04 | 8.19–11.90 | 7.69–12.40 | 1.45 | 0.00–3.16 | 0.00–3.62 | 11.496.96–16.02 |
| Total shots | 25.88 | 22.17–29.58 | 21.14–30.61 | 4.43 | 1.05–7.80 | 0.12–8.74 | 30.3021.26–39.35 |
| Shots in box | 16.10 | 13.59–18.62 | 12.72–19.48 | 3.85 | 1.55–6.15 | 0.75–6.95 | 19.9613.48–26.43 |
| Blocked shots | 6.02 | 4.43–7.60 | 3.90–8.13 | 1.77 | 0.35–3.18 | 0.00–3.67 | 7.783.76–11.80 |
| Corners | 9.56 | 7.35–11.76 | 6.76–12.36 | 2.10 | 0.12–4.08 | 0.00–4.62 | 11.666.34–16.98 |
| Possession % | 69.36 | 63.04–75.68 | 61.45–77.28 | 30.51 | 24.19–36.83 | 22.60–38.43 | — |
| Passes | 680 | 614–745 | 597–762 | 286 | 221–350 | 204–368 | 965800–1131 |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.53 | 80.32–88.75 | 79.02–90.05 | 64.35 | 59.84–68.85 | 58.51–70.19 | — |
| Fouls | 7.82 | 4.96–10.67 | 4.07–11.56 | 9.25 | 6.30–12.19 | 5.38–13.11 | 17.069.46–24.67 |
| Offsides | 1.59 | 0.39–2.80 | 0.04–3.15 | 1.52 | 0.35–2.68 | 0.02–3.01 | 3.110.06–6.16 |
| Yellow cards | 0.83 | 0.00–1.89 | 0.00–2.16 | 2.12 | 1.00–3.24 | 0.71–3.53 | 2.950.21–5.69 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 1.45 | 0.03–2.86 | 0.00–3.25 | 5.38 | 3.83–6.94 | 3.40–7.37 | 6.833.04–10.62 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
88%
Shots on target
100%
Total shots
100%
Shots in box
100%
Blocked shots
92%
Corners
98%
Fouls
32%
59%
Offsides
40%
24%
36%
Yellow cards
14%
19%
67%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
91%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+