Eredivisie· Regular Season - 18· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 | 0.42–2.35 | 0.16–2.61 | 1.69 | 0.83–2.55 | 0.58–2.80 | 3.070.75–5.40 |
| Shots on target | 4.01 | 2.15–5.87 | 1.65–6.36 | 5.05 | 3.35–6.76 | 2.88–7.23 | 9.064.53–13.59 |
| Total shots | 12.37 | 8.67–16.08 | 7.64–17.11 | 15.06 | 11.68–18.43 | 10.75–19.37 | 27.4318.39–36.47 |
| Shots in box | 8.62 | 6.10–11.13 | 5.23–12.00 | 10.42 | 8.12–12.72 | 7.32–13.52 | 19.0412.56–25.51 |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 | 2.40–5.56 | 1.86–6.10 | 3.73 | 2.31–5.14 | 1.83–5.63 | 7.713.69–11.73 |
| Corners | 4.50 | 2.30–6.71 | 1.70–7.30 | 5.57 | 3.59–7.55 | 3.06–8.09 | 10.084.76–15.39 |
| Possession % | 46.64 | 40.33–52.96 | 38.73–54.56 | 51.74 | 45.42–58.06 | 43.82–59.66 | — |
| Passes | 391 | 326–457 | 308–474 | 447 | 382–511 | 364–529 | 838673–1003 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.33 | 62.11–70.55 | 60.81–71.85 | 66.54 | 62.03–71.05 | 60.70–72.38 | — |
| Fouls | 12.17 | 9.31–15.03 | 8.43–15.91 | 11.82 | 8.88–14.77 | 7.96–15.69 | 23.9916.39–31.60 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.21–3.31 | 1.55 | 0.39–2.71 | 0.06–3.05 | 3.310.26–6.36 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.58–2.69 | 0.31–2.96 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.400.66–6.14 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.87 | 1.45–4.28 | 1.07–4.67 | 2.73 | 1.18–4.28 | 0.74–4.72 | 5.601.81–9.39 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
24%
45%
Shots on target
30%
57%
Total shots
27%
66%
Shots in box
30%
62%
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
Corners
31%
57%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+