Eredivisie· Regular Season - 18· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 | 0.30–2.22 | 0.04–2.48 | 1.49 | 0.63–2.35 | 0.38–2.60 | 2.750.42–5.08 |
| Shots on target | 3.58 | 1.73–5.44 | 1.23–5.94 | 5.85 | 4.14–7.56 | 3.67–8.02 | 9.434.90–13.96 |
| Total shots | 9.24 | 5.54–12.95 | 4.51–13.98 | 12.70 | 9.32–16.08 | 8.39–17.01 | 21.9412.90–30.99 |
| Shots in box | 8.44 | 5.92–10.95 | 5.06–11.82 | 9.01 | 6.71–11.31 | 5.91–12.11 | 17.4510.97–23.93 |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 | 2.05–5.22 | 1.52–5.75 | 3.76 | 2.35–5.17 | 1.86–5.66 | 7.403.38–11.42 |
| Corners | 3.11 | 0.91–5.32 | 0.31–5.91 | 5.29 | 3.31–7.27 | 2.77–7.81 | 8.403.09–13.72 |
| Possession % | 48.07 | 41.76–54.39 | 40.16–55.99 | 51.84 | 45.52–58.16 | 43.92–59.76 | — |
| Passes | 429 | 364–494 | 346–512 | 457 | 392–521 | 375–539 | 886721–1051 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.49 | 67.28–75.71 | 65.98–77.01 | 69.03 | 64.52–73.53 | 63.19–74.86 | — |
| Fouls | 11.70 | 8.84–14.56 | 7.96–15.44 | 12.74 | 9.80–15.69 | 8.88–16.60 | 24.4416.83–32.05 |
| Offsides | 1.72 | 0.51–2.93 | 0.17–3.28 | 1.70 | 0.54–2.86 | 0.21–3.20 | 3.420.37–6.47 |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 | 0.64–2.76 | 0.37–3.03 | 1.51 | 0.39–2.63 | 0.10–2.92 | 3.210.47–5.95 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.080.00–0.72 |
| GK saves | 3.54 | 2.12–4.95 | 1.73–5.34 | 2.43 | 0.87–3.98 | 0.44–4.41 | 5.962.18–9.75 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
25%
43%
Shots on target
18%
72%
Total shots
20%
74%
Shots in box
40%
51%
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
Corners
17%
72%
Fouls
38%
54%
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
Yellow cards
42%
23%
34%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
60%
15%
25%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+