Eredivisie· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 | 0.14–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 2.25 | 1.39–3.11 | 1.15–3.36 | 3.351.02–5.68 |
| Shots on target | 3.70 | 1.85–5.56 | 1.35–6.06 | 5.68 | 3.97–7.39 | 3.50–7.85 | 9.384.85–13.91 |
| Total shots | 11.19 | 7.49–14.89 | 6.46–15.92 | 15.11 | 11.73–18.49 | 10.80–19.42 | 26.3017.25–35.34 |
| Shots in box | 6.67 | 4.15–9.18 | 3.29–10.05 | 11.13 | 8.83–13.43 | 8.03–14.23 | 17.8011.32–24.27 |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 | 1.61–4.78 | 1.08–5.32 | 4.09 | 2.68–5.51 | 2.19–5.99 | 7.293.27–11.31 |
| Corners | 4.47 | 2.26–6.67 | 1.67–7.27 | 5.81 | 3.84–7.79 | 3.30–8.33 | 10.284.96–15.60 |
| Possession % | 41.68 | 35.36–47.99 | 33.76–49.59 | 58.24 | 51.92–64.56 | 50.32–66.16 | — |
| Passes | 401 | 336–467 | 318–484 | 533 | 468–598 | 451–615 | 934769–1099 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.71 | 60.49–68.92 | 59.19–70.22 | 71.79 | 67.28–76.29 | 65.95–77.63 | — |
| Fouls | 9.77 | 6.91–12.63 | 6.03–13.51 | 9.66 | 6.71–12.61 | 5.80–13.52 | 19.4311.82–27.03 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.09–3.20 | 2.10 | 0.94–3.27 | 0.61–3.60 | 3.750.70–6.80 |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.29–2.95 | 1.47 | 0.35–2.59 | 0.06–2.88 | 3.080.35–5.82 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 3.47 | 2.06–4.89 | 1.67–5.28 | 2.67 | 1.12–4.23 | 0.69–4.66 | 6.142.35–9.93 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
17%
19%
63%
Shots on target
21%
68%
Total shots
19%
75%
Shots in box
83%
Blocked shots
30%
14%
56%
Corners
28%
60%
Fouls
46%
44%
Offsides
31%
21%
49%
Yellow cards
41%
24%
35%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
55%
16%
30%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+