Eredivisie· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 | 0.26–2.19 | 0.00–2.45 | 1.27 | 0.41–2.13 | 0.17–2.38 | 2.500.17–4.83 |
| Shots on target | 4.95 | 3.09–6.80 | 2.59–7.30 | 3.80 | 2.09–5.51 | 1.62–5.97 | 8.754.22–13.28 |
| Total shots | 11.34 | 7.64–15.05 | 6.61–16.08 | 11.06 | 7.68–14.44 | 6.75–15.37 | 22.4113.36–31.45 |
| Shots in box | 8.63 | 6.12–11.15 | 5.25–12.01 | 7.26 | 4.96–9.56 | 4.16–10.36 | 15.899.41–22.37 |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 | 1.69–4.85 | 1.15–5.39 | 3.21 | 1.80–4.63 | 1.31–5.11 | 6.482.46–10.50 |
| Corners | 5.35 | 3.14–7.55 | 2.55–8.15 | 4.57 | 2.59–6.54 | 2.05–7.08 | 9.924.60–15.23 |
| Possession % | 48.17 | 41.85–54.49 | 40.25–56.08 | 50.03 | 43.71–56.35 | 42.11–57.94 | — |
| Passes | 410 | 345–475 | 327–493 | 456 | 392–521 | 374–538 | 866701–1032 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.10 | 64.88–73.32 | 63.58–74.62 | 70.84 | 66.33–75.35 | 65.00–76.68 | — |
| Fouls | 11.82 | 8.96–14.67 | 8.07–15.56 | 11.03 | 8.08–13.97 | 7.16–14.89 | 22.8415.24–30.45 |
| Offsides | 2.06 | 0.85–3.26 | 0.50–3.61 | 1.21 | 0.04–2.37 | 0.00–2.70 | 3.260.21–6.31 |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 | 0.59–2.70 | 0.32–2.98 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.560.82–6.30 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.17 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.12 | 0.71–3.54 | 0.32–3.93 | 3.27 | 1.72–4.83 | 1.29–5.26 | 5.401.61–9.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
27%
38%
Shots on target
59%
29%
Total shots
48%
43%
Shots in box
59%
32%
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
Corners
53%
34%
Fouls
52%
39%
Offsides
57%
21%
22%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
24%
16%
61%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+