Eredivisie· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 | 0.23–2.16 | 0.00–2.42 | 1.67 | 0.81–2.53 | 0.56–2.78 | 2.870.54–5.19 |
| Shots on target | 3.90 | 2.05–5.76 | 1.55–6.26 | 5.62 | 3.91–7.32 | 3.44–7.79 | 9.524.99–14.05 |
| Total shots | 11.87 | 8.16–15.57 | 7.13–16.60 | 16.58 | 13.21–19.96 | 12.27–20.89 | 28.4519.41–37.49 |
| Shots in box | 7.71 | 5.19–10.22 | 4.33–11.09 | 10.17 | 7.87–12.47 | 7.07–13.27 | 17.8811.40–24.36 |
| Blocked shots | 3.71 | 2.12–5.29 | 1.59–5.83 | 4.07 | 2.66–5.49 | 2.17–5.97 | 7.783.76–11.80 |
| Corners | 3.94 | 1.73–6.14 | 1.14–6.74 | 6.20 | 4.22–8.17 | 3.68–8.71 | 10.144.82–15.45 |
| Possession % | 44.39 | 38.07–50.71 | 36.48–52.30 | 55.50 | 49.18–61.82 | 47.59–63.42 | — |
| Passes | 364 | 298–429 | 281–447 | 460 | 396–525 | 378–542 | 824659–989 |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.56 | 59.35–67.78 | 58.04–69.08 | 69.38 | 64.88–73.89 | 63.55–75.22 | — |
| Fouls | 12.42 | 9.57–15.28 | 8.68–16.17 | 9.16 | 6.21–12.10 | 5.30–13.02 | 21.5813.98–29.19 |
| Offsides | 1.73 | 0.52–2.94 | 0.18–3.29 | 1.50 | 0.34–2.66 | 0.00–2.99 | 3.230.18–6.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.25–2.91 | 1.58 | 0.46–2.70 | 0.17–2.99 | 3.160.43–5.90 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.39 | 1.97–4.80 | 1.58–5.19 | 2.54 | 0.98–4.09 | 0.55–4.52 | 5.922.13–9.71 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
24%
48%
Shots on target
23%
65%
Total shots
16%
79%
Shots in box
24%
68%
Blocked shots
38%
14%
48%
Corners
19%
71%
Fouls
72%
21%
Offsides
43%
23%
33%
Yellow cards
38%
24%
38%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+