Eredivisie· Regular Season - 26· · Johan Cruijff Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.46 | 1.49–3.42 | 1.23–3.68 | 0.75 | 0.00–1.61 | 0.00–1.86 | 3.210.88–5.54 |
| Shots on target | 8.39 | 6.53–10.25 | 6.03–10.74 | 1.98 | 0.28–3.69 | 0.00–4.16 | 10.375.84–14.90 |
| Total shots | 22.40 | 18.70–26.10 | 17.67–27.13 | 6.34 | 2.97–9.72 | 2.03–10.65 | 28.7419.70–37.79 |
| Shots in box | 14.28 | 11.76–16.79 | 10.89–17.66 | 5.26 | 2.95–7.56 | 2.16–8.35 | 19.5313.05–26.01 |
| Blocked shots | 5.04 | 3.46–6.63 | 2.92–7.16 | 2.12 | 0.70–3.53 | 0.21–4.02 | 7.163.14–11.18 |
| Corners | 7.74 | 5.53–9.95 | 4.94–10.54 | 2.60 | 0.62–4.58 | 0.08–5.12 | 10.345.02–15.66 |
| Possession % | 66.93 | 60.61–73.25 | 59.01–74.84 | 32.44 | 26.13–38.76 | 24.53–40.36 | — |
| Passes | 631 | 566–697 | 548–714 | 319 | 254–383 | 236–401 | 950785–1115 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.83 | 79.61–88.05 | 78.31–89.35 | 64.26 | 59.76–68.77 | 58.43–70.10 | — |
| Fouls | 8.98 | 6.13–11.84 | 5.24–12.73 | 10.05 | 7.10–12.99 | 6.18–13.91 | 19.0311.43–26.64 |
| Offsides | 1.49 | 0.28–2.70 | 0.00–3.04 | 1.55 | 0.39–2.72 | 0.06–3.05 | 3.040.00–6.09 |
| Yellow cards | 1.18 | 0.12–2.23 | 0.00–2.51 | 2.15 | 1.03–3.27 | 0.74–3.56 | 3.330.59–6.07 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 1.75 | 0.34–3.17 | 0.00–3.56 | 4.77 | 3.22–6.32 | 2.78–6.76 | 6.522.73–10.31 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
75%
16%
Shots on target
97%
Total shots
100%
Shots in box
98%
Blocked shots
82%
Corners
93%
Fouls
36%
55%
Offsides
36%
24%
39%
Yellow cards
20%
20%
60%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
84%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+