Eredivisie· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 | 0.00–1.89 | 0.00–2.15 | 2.90 | 2.04–3.76 | 1.79–4.00 | 3.821.49–6.15 |
| Shots on target | 3.15 | 1.30–5.01 | 0.80–5.51 | 5.97 | 4.27–7.68 | 3.80–8.15 | 9.134.60–13.66 |
| Total shots | 8.12 | 4.42–11.82 | 3.38–12.85 | 16.57 | 13.19–19.95 | 12.26–20.88 | 24.6915.65–33.73 |
| Shots in box | 7.08 | 4.56–9.59 | 3.70–10.46 | 13.23 | 10.93–15.53 | 10.13–16.33 | 20.3113.83–26.79 |
| Blocked shots | 2.60 | 1.01–4.18 | 0.48–4.72 | 5.15 | 3.74–6.57 | 3.25–7.05 | 7.753.73–11.77 |
| Corners | 4.48 | 2.28–6.69 | 1.68–7.28 | 6.61 | 4.63–8.59 | 4.09–9.13 | 11.095.78–16.41 |
| Possession % | 36.45 | 30.13–42.77 | 28.53–44.36 | 64.31 | 57.99–70.63 | 56.40–72.23 | — |
| Passes | 332 | 267–397 | 249–415 | 596 | 532–661 | 514–678 | 928763–1093 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.35 | 60.14–68.57 | 58.83–69.87 | 81.13 | 76.62–85.63 | 75.29–86.97 | — |
| Fouls | 11.05 | 8.19–13.90 | 7.30–14.79 | 10.71 | 7.76–13.65 | 6.84–14.57 | 21.7514.15–29.36 |
| Offsides | 1.88 | 0.67–3.09 | 0.32–3.43 | 1.26 | 0.10–2.42 | 0.00–2.76 | 3.140.09–6.19 |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 | 0.61–2.72 | 0.34–2.99 | 1.36 | 0.24–2.48 | 0.00–2.77 | 3.030.29–5.77 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.54 | 2.12–4.95 | 1.73–5.34 | 2.33 | 0.77–3.88 | 0.34–4.31 | 5.872.08–9.66 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
13%
78%
Shots on target
13%
78%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
90%
Blocked shots
13%
77%
Corners
21%
69%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
52%
23%
26%
Yellow cards
45%
24%
31%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
61%
15%
24%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+