Eredivisie· Regular Season - 28· · Johan Cruijff Arena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 | 0.98–2.91 | 0.72–3.17 | 1.54 | 0.68–2.40 | 0.43–2.64 | 3.481.15–5.81 |
| Shots on target | 5.64 | 3.78–7.49 | 3.28–7.99 | 5.04 | 3.34–6.75 | 2.87–7.22 | 10.686.15–15.21 |
| Total shots | 15.59 | 11.89–19.29 | 10.85–20.32 | 13.73 | 10.35–17.11 | 9.42–18.04 | 29.3220.28–38.37 |
| Shots in box | 9.85 | 7.33–12.36 | 6.47–13.23 | 8.64 | 6.33–10.94 | 5.54–11.73 | 18.4812.00–24.96 |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 | 2.25–5.42 | 1.72–5.96 | 3.50 | 2.08–4.91 | 1.60–5.40 | 7.343.32–11.36 |
| Corners | 4.97 | 2.77–7.18 | 2.17–7.77 | 4.26 | 2.28–6.23 | 1.74–6.77 | 9.233.91–14.55 |
| Possession % | 52.67 | 46.35–58.99 | 44.76–60.59 | 46.67 | 40.35–52.99 | 38.75–54.58 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 449–580 | 431–597 | 473 | 409–538 | 391–556 | 988822–1153 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.44 | 76.22–84.66 | 74.92–85.96 | 77.85 | 73.35–82.36 | 72.02–83.69 | — |
| Fouls | 9.44 | 6.58–12.30 | 5.70–13.18 | 10.87 | 7.93–13.82 | 7.01–14.73 | 20.3112.70–27.92 |
| Offsides | 1.92 | 0.71–3.13 | 0.37–3.47 | 1.64 | 0.48–2.80 | 0.15–3.14 | 3.560.51–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 | 0.97–3.08 | 0.70–3.35 | 1.81 | 0.69–2.93 | 0.40–3.23 | 3.841.10–6.58 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.29 | 1.88–4.71 | 1.49–5.10 | 3.40 | 1.85–4.96 | 1.42–5.39 | 6.692.90–10.48 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
22%
31%
Shots on target
51%
37%
Total shots
60%
33%
Shots in box
57%
34%
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
Corners
53%
34%
Fouls
33%
58%
Offsides
45%
22%
33%
Yellow cards
44%
21%
35%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+