Eredivisie· Regular Season - 29· · Goffertstadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 | 0.29–2.22 | 0.03–2.48 | 1.86 | 1.00–2.72 | 0.75–2.96 | 3.110.78–5.44 |
| Shots on target | 5.17 | 3.32–7.03 | 2.82–7.53 | 5.56 | 3.86–7.27 | 3.39–7.74 | 10.746.20–15.27 |
| Total shots | 15.94 | 12.24–19.64 | 11.21–20.68 | 15.76 | 12.38–19.13 | 11.45–20.06 | 31.7022.65–40.74 |
| Shots in box | 9.06 | 6.55–11.58 | 5.68–12.44 | 10.86 | 8.56–13.16 | 7.76–13.96 | 19.9213.44–26.40 |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 | 2.29–5.46 | 1.75–5.99 | 4.18 | 2.76–5.59 | 2.28–6.08 | 8.054.03–12.07 |
| Corners | 4.82 | 2.62–7.03 | 2.02–7.62 | 5.76 | 3.79–7.74 | 3.25–8.28 | 10.595.27–15.90 |
| Possession % | 45.88 | 39.56–52.19 | 37.96–53.79 | 51.94 | 45.62–58.25 | 44.02–59.85 | — |
| Passes | 406 | 340–471 | 323–488 | 473 | 408–537 | 391–555 | 878713–1043 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.60 | 67.38–75.81 | 66.08–77.11 | 75.28 | 70.77–79.79 | 69.44–81.12 | — |
| Fouls | 11.19 | 8.33–14.05 | 7.45–14.93 | 11.18 | 8.24–14.13 | 7.32–15.05 | 22.3714.77–29.98 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.03 | 0.27–3.37 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.95 | 0.29–3.28 | 3.610.56–6.65 |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 | 0.59–2.70 | 0.32–2.98 | 1.67 | 0.55–2.79 | 0.26–3.08 | 3.310.58–6.05 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.38 | 1.97–4.80 | 1.58–5.19 | 3.13 | 1.58–4.69 | 1.15–5.12 | 6.512.72–10.30 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
23%
51%
Shots on target
39%
49%
Total shots
48%
45%
Shots in box
30%
61%
Blocked shots
39%
14%
47%
Corners
33%
55%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+