Eredivisie· Regular Season - 31· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.08 | 2.12–4.04 | 1.86–4.30 | 0.75 | 0.00–1.61 | 0.00–1.86 | 3.831.50–6.16 |
| Shots on target | 7.39 | 5.53–9.24 | 5.03–9.74 | 3.14 | 1.43–4.84 | 0.96–5.31 | 10.525.99–15.05 |
| Total shots | 20.37 | 16.67–24.07 | 15.63–25.10 | 8.93 | 5.55–12.31 | 4.62–13.24 | 29.3020.25–38.34 |
| Shots in box | 16.17 | 13.66–18.69 | 12.79–19.55 | 6.03 | 3.73–8.33 | 2.93–9.12 | 22.2015.72–28.68 |
| Blocked shots | 5.34 | 3.76–6.93 | 3.23–7.46 | 2.29 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.39–4.19 | 7.643.62–11.66 |
| Corners | 7.66 | 5.46–9.87 | 4.86–10.46 | 3.71 | 1.74–5.69 | 1.20–6.23 | 11.386.06–16.69 |
| Possession % | 63.20 | 56.89–69.52 | 55.29–71.12 | 34.83 | 28.51–41.15 | 26.91–42.75 | — |
| Passes | 612 | 547–678 | 529–695 | 343 | 278–407 | 260–425 | 955790–1120 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.87 | 71.66–80.09 | 70.36–81.39 | 65.89 | 61.39–70.40 | 60.06–71.73 | — |
| Fouls | 10.30 | 7.44–13.15 | 6.55–14.04 | 10.25 | 7.30–13.20 | 6.39–14.11 | 20.5512.94–28.15 |
| Offsides | 1.71 | 0.50–2.92 | 0.16–3.27 | 1.63 | 0.47–2.79 | 0.13–3.13 | 3.340.30–6.39 |
| Yellow cards | 0.88 | 0.00–1.93 | 0.00–2.20 | 1.46 | 0.33–2.58 | 0.04–2.87 | 2.330.00–5.07 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.17 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.080.00–0.72 |
| GK saves | 2.45 | 1.04–3.87 | 0.65–4.26 | 4.25 | 2.69–5.80 | 2.26–6.23 | 6.702.91–10.49 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
83%
Shots on target
88%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
98%
Blocked shots
83%
Corners
85%
Fouls
46%
45%
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
Yellow cards
23%
27%
51%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
18%
69%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+