Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.19 | 1.22–3.15 | 0.96–3.41 | 1.35 | 0.49–2.21 | 0.25–2.46 | 3.541.21–5.87 |
| Shots on target | 6.72 | 4.86–8.57 | 4.36–9.07 | 4.45 | 2.74–6.16 | 2.27–6.62 | 11.176.64–15.70 |
| Total shots | 19.19 | 15.49–22.90 | 14.46–23.93 | 12.20 | 8.82–15.58 | 7.89–16.51 | 31.3922.35–40.44 |
| Shots in box | 12.10 | 9.58–14.61 | 8.72–15.48 | 8.14 | 5.84–10.44 | 5.04–11.24 | 20.2313.76–26.71 |
| Blocked shots | 5.58 | 4.00–7.17 | 3.46–7.70 | 2.96 | 1.55–4.38 | 1.06–4.87 | 8.554.53–12.57 |
| Corners | 6.95 | 4.74–9.15 | 4.15–9.75 | 3.93 | 1.95–5.91 | 1.42–6.45 | 10.885.56–16.19 |
| Possession % | 57.31 | 50.99–63.63 | 49.40–65.23 | 41.42 | 35.10–47.74 | 33.50–49.34 | — |
| Passes | 509 | 444–575 | 426–592 | 379 | 315–444 | 297–461 | 889723–1054 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.77 | 71.55–79.98 | 70.25–81.28 | 67.72 | 63.21–72.23 | 61.88–73.56 | — |
| Fouls | 8.78 | 5.92–11.63 | 5.03–12.52 | 12.20 | 9.26–15.15 | 8.34–16.07 | 20.9813.37–28.59 |
| Offsides | 1.46 | 0.25–2.66 | 0.00–3.01 | 1.62 | 0.45–2.78 | 0.12–3.11 | 3.070.02–6.12 |
| Yellow cards | 1.15 | 0.10–2.21 | 0.00–2.48 | 1.68 | 0.56–2.80 | 0.27–3.09 | 2.840.10–5.58 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.50 | 1.08–3.91 | 0.69–4.30 | 3.90 | 2.34–5.45 | 1.91–5.88 | 6.392.61–10.18 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
20%
23%
Shots on target
70%
20%
Total shots
88%
Shots in box
78%
16%
Blocked shots
77%
14%
Corners
78%
14%
Fouls
19%
74%
Offsides
35%
24%
42%
Yellow cards
26%
24%
50%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+